1/ THREAD on Sweden & "natural herd immunity":
COVID cases RISING in Sweden since August/September, as is the case across Europe. DEATHS are a LAGGING indicator (~6-8+ weeks after infections). It is likely Sweden will experience another SURGE in DEATHS in the coming weeks.
2/ Like the U.S., Sweden FAILED to suppress virus transmission over the summer, in contrast to Sweden’s neighbors, like Norway and Germany. That was DESPITE many Swedes leaving urban and suburban areas for remote cabins in the summer.
3/ Italy was hit hard and early. England initially took a herd immunity approach to the pandemic (the tallest peak). The U.S. and Sweden have almost identical curves. Sweden’s neighbors Norway and Germany sustained much smaller losses from COVID.
12/ But in contrast to Americans, Swedes have a high level of social and institutional trust. This means they’re more likely to comply with public health recommendations without mandates and strict sanctions.
13/ An opinion poll in Sweden in early April found that 98% of respondents had changed their behavior to protect themselves from COVID. https://www.msb.se/sv/aktuellt/nyheter/2020/april/nastan-hela-befolkningen-har-andrat-sitt-beteende-med-anledning-av-coronapandemin/
14/ Though stores and restaurants remained open in Sweden, Google mobility tracking data suggests that Americans and Swedes decreased their visits to restaurants, cafes, and other retail / recreation locations at similar rates (-16% versus -12%).
17/ The Swedish government kept open daycare centers and primary schools (NOT secondary schools, colleges, and universities, which went online).
18/ Note that children 10 and under seem to be less likely to transmit coronavirus to adults.
https://twitter.com/celinegounder/status/1281310036673867776?s=20
https://globalhealth.washington.edu/sites/default/files/COVID-19%20Schools%20Summary%20%28updated%29.pdf
19/ Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist for the Swedish public health authority, was concerned about recommending face masks in public because such advice “would also imply that the spread is airborne.”
24/ What’s been the impact of the pandemic on Sweden’s economy? In the 1st half of 2020, Sweden’s GDP fell by 8.5%—less than in neighboring Germany, but MORE than in neighboring countries Norway and Finland. Also less than in the U.S. https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/10/20/sweden-economy-pandemic-strategy/
29/ In addition, the Swedish government’s policy of sick leave:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/apa.15582
30/ Without Sweden's more generous social and economic safety nets and healthcare system, a “natural herd immunity” strategy will likely be MORE destructive to public health and the economy in the U.S. than it has been in Sweden.
31/ In summary, the Swedish approach wasn’t really a “natural herd immunity” approach. But the Swedish strategy was highly costly with respect to cases and deaths with little economic benefit.
32/ Cumulative confirmed COVID deaths per million people (does not include deaths due to COVID where testing was not performed):
U.S. 679.45
Sweden 587.47
Denmark 120.85
Germany 119.74
Finland 63.71
Norway 51.46
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