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IMO, both Ter-Pertrosyan & Sargsyan (but not early Qocharyan) figured out that NK status isn't possible at all (Aze was stronger economically, and time was working against Arm).

To me, Ter-Petrosyan was genuinely trying to resolve the conflict ASAP, by giving back the 7 rayons, ending the war, opening the borders with Tur and Aze, and postponing the negotiations of potential status of NK to the far future. IMO the latter was just a hack to save his face.

Armenians and especially Karabakhis were furious. Qocharyan gained the power and did his attempts to establish an NK status (even via cutting off South Syunik from Armenia). As LTP predicted earlier, even that sacrifice didn't work.

Then came Serzh Sargsyan. It was really tough for him. He also understood the prospects for NK independence are dim. At the same time he was Karabakhi (thus, autonomy of NK wasn't an option), corrupt (like Qocharyan), and the nation was even more radical on NK than in 90's.

So Sargsyan used a similar hack Ter-Petrosyan did earlier (an obscure referendum in NK in the far future), but this time *without any actual intention to really resolve anything*. IMO, he was not planning to sign anything. Just to keep the status quo as long as possible.

So I think, all these years Aliyevs were genuinely expecting to get back the 7 rayons, as well as former NKAO territories in the future (but in a way to allow Armenian side to save their face).

Then came Pashinyan - as a head of legitimate govt. of Armenia. I guess he was somewhat surprised by finding out the real state of negotiations (Aliyev expectations + Arm strategy to prolong the status quo + very obscure chance of NK independence even on paper).

He probably decided to interpret the Madrid principles more explicitly (and not as a way to win time and/or eventually pass surrounding areas (with NK in the future) to Aze - with saving his face). Hence talking about peaceful solution for Arm, NK Arm and Aze people.

The latter was also a trick to
a. Try to return NK into negotiations;
b. Please the international community.

Needless to say, Aliyev was furious...

So probably it was around mid-2019 when it became evident, that parties were interpreting Madrid Principles in a completely different, incompatible, maximalist ways...
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