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Here Dr Simon Thornley links to a BMJ editorial written by well-respected and prominent experts, Prof Davey-Smith and Prof Speigelhalter, to firm up Thornley’s views against lockdowns. What his tweet doesn’t acknowledge is this editorial was published 5 months ago on 20th May. /1 https://twitter.com/simonthornley30/status/1319440814922104833
Understanding the 5-month time lag on this editorial and it’s authors context is VIP because (a) both these experts have published further pieces since that time, (b) we have learnt more about COVID-19 since May, and (c) these authors are in the UK. Let me walk through these: /2
First - timing. On the 20th May, the date this piece was published, NZ reported zero cases of Covid-19. Just under 3 weeks later on 8th June, NZ moved to Level 1. NZ has not had another national lockdown since then. /3 https://shorthand.radionz.co.nz/coronavirus-timeline/
In contrast, on 20th May, Boris Johnson pledged UK-wide contract tracing by 1st June (didn’t happen), the UK death toll is 35,704, hospitalisations <10,000K for first time since March, kids are not yet back to school, ECDC worries about a second wave./4 https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/may/20/uk-coronavirus-live-school-rebellion-english-primaries-pmqs-covid-19-latest-news-updates
Since May COVID-19 restrictions in the UK have never truly lifted, described by Prof @devisridhar as “continual lockdown” /5 https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/10/continual-local-lockdowns-answer-covid-control
I can very much appreciate the sentiment from the authors that lockdowns (given their UK experience of it) is not the way forwards. But nobody wants lockdowns. That is why short sharp lockdowns, only *if* necessary are the best use of them (IMF report) /6 https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2020/October/English/ch2.ashx?la=en
Secondly, since May the authors have gone on to publish further pieces on COVID-19, no pieces I have seen continue to claim the UK should not *ever* lockdown (correct me if I’m wrong!) although of course nobody wants this, and work gains more complexity and nuance: /7
Eg. Prof Davey Smith on uncertainty, COVID-19, keeping an open mind: https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3979
“Commentators who are utterly consistent, and see new data or situation emerge through the lens of their pre-existing views - be it “Let it rip” or “Zero covid now” - fail [the] test” /8
“Commentators who are utterly consistent, and see new data or situation emerge through the lens of their pre-existing views - be it “Let it rip” or “Zero covid now” - fail [the] test” /8
And this interesting adjudication note from Prof Davey Smith in the piece above was fascinating to me: /9
Eg2: Speigelhalter wrote in Sep: https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3259 “the message that covid-19 risk was ~the same as the annual risk (and that catching the virus roughly doubles the risk of dying this year) was misinterpreted [to mean] that it did not increase the annual risk at all” /10
Thirdly, we have learnt more about Covid-19 since May which should give us pause - we have emerging data on Long Covid affecting a substantial number of previously healthy survivors, and also that socially deprived groups have more barriers to shielding /11
Finally, we should consider our unique NZ context when appraising the helpfulness of expertise from overseas that may be directed at specific situations (eg UK, Europe). NZ’s inequities in preexisting conditions amongst treaty-partners Māori and also Pacific, the limits of /12
Our healthcare system, our thin front-line healthcare workforce, and the infeasibility of shielding >20% of the population indefinitely w higher shielding required in Māori and Pacific peoples - should all be considered /13 https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/jin-russell-veronica-playle-plan-b-is-no-easy-fix-for-covid-19/WLF45YVSHDZSMOPMQBKRWUQQFA/
We cannot unfortunately import overseas ideas even from experts I personally admire, without due consideration of timing, our context, our treaty obligations, and our vision for Aotearoa as a whole. We are showing the world another way /end https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-world-health-organisation-praises-new-zealands-response/IDEQJDGRZEXLUW2HBODEQBVRRY/
