I admit I’ve not focussed on Wales but that might make my viewpoint fresh.
I wonder if almost everything is down to false positives greatly worsened by testing people already in hospital. Let’s say there’s some covid19 in the community (not convinced, myself, but I’ll go with it) https://twitter.com/jengleruk/status/1319554236213055488

....and we’re seeing the usual flow of admissions rising through autumn. Intensive testing of patients where there are any really infected patients makes contamination a near certainty. One strand of even partial viral RNA getting into the swab, stick, glove & bag is all it...

...takes. Now we’ve an apparent epidemic of nosocomial or hospital acquired infections. But they have most to be false, because we don’t see marked if any excess deaths. There will of course be people who are ill & get admitted for all sorts of reason, and roughly 1.7% of...

...hospital admissions lead to a death. As false positives flow through all stages, from ‘cases’ to admissions to ICU & to deaths, no one is doing anything wrong, but we’ve a potential PCR false positive pseudo epidemic.
In case you think I’m off my head, read this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/22/health/22whoop.html
I also read the scientific articles reporting the aftermath & there’s another echo: positive PCR tests were at very high cycle thresholds, like Ct41.

It occurred to me, was this New Hampshire ‘outbreak’ the model which has been followed with SARS-CoV-2?