Some are arguing that in Florida right now, the democrats only have a 300,000 vote lead over R’s when vote-by-mail and in-person voting are added together, a lead that republicans will make up on Election Day, when voters are expected to break more for Trump. Here’s the problem:

The people who are doing this are assuming that 100% of D’s are voting for Biden, 100% of R’s are voting for Trump, and they are completely ignoring independent voters. However, YouGov asked those who already voted in Florida who they voted for, by party registration.

D’s voted for Biden 99-1, R’s voted for Trump 87-12, and Independents voted for Biden 56-40. If you apply these breakdowns to the number of votes by party in Florida, you end up with 3.3 million votes for Biden, 2.3 million for Trump, and 100,000 for third parties.

This means in reality, Biden right now has about a 1,000,000 vote lead in Florida right now, not a 300,000 vote lead. It’s much harder to argue that Republicans can make this up on Election Day.