THREAD MN Early/VBM Statistics - 10/25 Update.
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(1)

(2) Here's today's graphic. Analysis and summary follows...

(3) CD 1 (Southern MN) +1,171 added to Trump's margin here. Well above the 887 daily average looking back. Looking very good for a Republican hold of this seat.

(4) CD 2 (Southeast Twin Cities Metro and SE MN) - added +794 to the margin here and that's on pace with the 850 daily average. Jason Lewis's backyard is looking good for a Republican flip of this seat.

(5) CD 3 (Minneapolis West Suburbs) - This one is still going to be the most difficult in the state for Republicans to flip. But, the velocity of margin being added is slowing down. 850 daily average and only +350 added yesterday. Could slow down even more.

(6) CD 4 (St. Paul and adjacent suburbs) - Margin banking still going on here at the same as the trailing daily average around +2,600 added to the margin. But, Republican vote still yet to vote, so the margins now will be cut into on ED.

(7) CD 5 (Minneapolis and adjacent suburbs) - Ilhan Omar's district. Still have healthy vote banking here at nearly +6,200 added into the margin with daily average of 5,094. But the Repub vote on ED will cut into the margins.

(8) CD 6 (Washington County and Anoka County) - Healthy vote margin banking of +2,200 per day continues here. Definitely will be a hold for Tom Emmer and the Republicans based on what I'm seeing.

(9) CD 7 (Northwest Quadrant of MN) - Healthy Republican vote margin banking which all but guarantees Colin Peterson will be sent into retirement and Michelle Fishbach will flip this one back to Republican hands.

(10) CD 8 (Iron Range) - Adding to the vote margin banked in here and that's good news for Pete Stauber to keep this seat in Republican hands and also give Trump some margin to offset Biden's banked in margins in the Twin Cities.

(11) If we look at the Twin Cities vs Outstate (blue cells) in terms of remaining votes each candidate can get out... We find that Bide has had to burn 18K votes in the Twin Cities and only 11K burned by Trump, but outstate, Biden burned 30K vs Trump's 28K.

(12) This means Biden is eating into his vote pool faster than Trump and this means Trump's advantage in votes he can turn out on ED is growing larger. If Biden runs out of easily convertible votes in CD 3, 4, 5, Trump has the upside on ED.

(13) Still overall, Trump heading for a narrow win. What we watch for is if the vote margins begin to slow down in their velocity over the next week or so before ED.

(14) Thank you to all my fans! I appreciate each and every one of you! Will have another update tomorrow if Monday numbers show anything. Usually they don't, so you might have to wait till Tuesday. RT and Follow for updates!
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