I expect Biden to win but...I am terrible at this. I thought Romney would win. I thought Hillary would win. You don't really want me on your team.

That said, for the first time this cycle I bothered to look at the polls.

Each compared to 2016, with actual result (x).
2016 Trump 0.4 (1.2)
2020 Biden 1.5

2016 Trump 2.2 (8.1)
2020 Trump 0.6

2016 Clinton 2.1 (Trump 0.7)
2020 Biden 5.1

2016 Clinton 3.6 (Trump 0.3)
2020 Biden 7.8

2016 Clinton 6.5 (Trump 0.7)
2020 Biden 4.6
So, what does this tell us?

Biden is stronger than Hillary in MI, and PA. WI...was just weird last time.

Trump is weaker in FL and OH.

I mean, I still think Biden wins. But man...I understand why Dems are scared.
Here is the other thing: polling is wrong SOMEWHERE.

Doesn't make sense that this race is close in Florida...and Texas.

If Texas is close, Florida should be a wipeout for Biden.
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