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The Chinese Communist Party’s big plenary session is just about to begin in Beijing. Thinking about this important event, & the many challenges China faces, I'm struck by how much triumphalism is evident in the public pronouncements of the leadership.
[THREAD]
[THREAD]
If this plenum had a tagline, it might as well be what top economic policymaker Vice Premier Liu He said in a recent speech:
"Now the bad things are turning into good ones."
"Now the bad things are turning into good ones."
China's leaders see major opportunities for economic growth, & even managing the process of U.S.-China decoupling in their favor.
They now believe that China has a major advantage in setting the terms of this process: it has contained COVID-19 & its economy is back in action...
They now believe that China has a major advantage in setting the terms of this process: it has contained COVID-19 & its economy is back in action...
This self-confidence doesn't appear to be just propaganda. It’s driving domestic & foreign policy decisions, including the new "dual circulation" economic strategy being rolled out this year. See: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-13/china-thinks-america-losing
The U.S. has so many advantages. But China's leaders see their country's economic recovery, in the global context, as a new asymmetric advantage favoring China.
Of course, we should question that official optimism, which seems to put a rosy cast on a very challenging situation.
Of course, we should question that official optimism, which seems to put a rosy cast on a very challenging situation.
But it's important to note that this plenum isn't just discussing the next five-year plan — it's also unveiling a plan for the period until *2035*.
That's remarkably long-term planning in a moment of such upheaval & uncertainty.
That's remarkably long-term planning in a moment of such upheaval & uncertainty.
(2035, btw, is the halfway point between the 100th anniversary of the CCP's founding, 2021, and the 100th anniversary of the PRC's establishment, 2049. It's a key year in many existing plans, like "China Standards 2035," & its importance will be elevated further at the plenum.)
So this plenum is ultimately about seizing near-term opportunities presented by Trump & COVID, while preparing for long-term "struggle" to achieve Xi Jinping's goals for China. He remains undaunted, despite the headwinds.
And a key reminder from @StephenMcDonell—the plenum will happen w/little transparency, in a year where so many of the best journalists covering China's politics have been kicked out. Not new but still stunning for one of the world's most powerful countries https://twitter.com/StephenMcDonell/status/1320528259793244160
