Thread:
1) Sunday's are hobby days. This Sunday I chose to run the numbers @pierre_rochard

For a while inflation and Turkish Lira's dependency on USD was in my mind. I have no respect for Tuik (Turkish Institute of Statistics- responsible for inflation data), so ran my own.

2) According to Tuik data, compounded inflation of Turkey between 2012 and 2020 was 243,6%. According to woke citizens of Turkey and people who focus on inflation data such as @steve_hanke it is way more than that.

3) I have calculated a non-minimum wage inflation and rather had a simple basket. Following ( @michael_saylor 's way)
Basket was:
Premium housing price (in my city) / 40
Passat TSI1.5 / 20 ( a middle class car in Turkey)
Premium K12 schooling/7
Latest Iphone for that year/4

4) Basket cont.

Annual housing fees
Annual cell phone and internet fees
Harvard annual tuition cost/ 21
Average of Fb, Amzn, Goog, Msft stock prices*10
Employing 1 minimum wage worker
And annual poverty income level for simple cpi data.

5) I have assumed a lifespan of 84 years that's why K12 is divided by 7 and Harvard education is divided by 21. Car is nothing like a classic and calculated so that it depreciates fully in 20 years. With this calculation I have found inflation between 2012 and 2020 to be 431,95%.

6) This totally makes sense compared to the data provided by Tuik. Between 2012 and now Turkish Lira depreciated from 1.8 TRY/USD to 7.97 TRY/USD. Its a 4.427 fold change.

7) Turkey always had a trade deficit and is dependent on importing goods. So ideally I would expect inflation to be as much as the change in Turkish Lira's valuation against the dollar. However Tuik data is at 243.6% and dollar change is at 442.7% in a span of 8 years.

9) When calculating using a method @michael_saylor used to disembody Keith gave very similar results to the change in the value of Turkish Lira against the USD.

10) TUIK reported inflation data ultimately benefits employers, people/companies who qualify for credits and causes heavy losses to blue and white collar workers. Yearly salary increases as well as interest rates are calculated with the use of the Cpi data Tuik provide.

11) Considering that 60+% of the working class in Turkey are minimum wage earners, mispresented inflation data is techically stealing from minimum wage earners and distributing them to the people who are closer to the source of money creation aka Cantillon effect. @jimmysong

12) This also causes trained/educated middle class to leave country as their earnings diminish in terms of dollars. A friend of mine who started his career at @VodafoneTR was earning $2300 in 2010.

13) 10 years, a masters degree from a reputable college abroad, a lot of promotions later he is earning $2509 now working at a successful startup that got funding from @sequoia. In 2010 he could buy 4 Iphone 4 (16GB's) each at $599, and in 2020 he can only buy 2 Iphone 12 Pro Max