This poll shows Texas Hispanic support for Trump at 27%. As I’ve been saying the 30 year trend line of support for GOP candidates is 26-30% so this is directly in the historical range. https://twitter.com/mcgeffers/status/1320382601740234752

Southwestern Hispanic voters (especially Texans) have shown a remarkably consistent level of GOP support in this range. Texas Hispanics have tended to be a bit higher until the last few cycles where they now essentially mirror their CA & AZ counterparts.

Most public polling in Texas this cycle has shown support levels for Trump in a mid-30’s range. This would be problematic for Biden - essentially offsetting any gains that a historic turnout would produce. The baseline number I have been using is 33%.

If Biden we’re to keep Texas Hispanic numbers of support above 33% he would be in a strong position to win (of course this requires gop crossover numbers to stay as high as they are). If Trump broke the 33% line it would be very difficult for Biden even with historic turnout

As I’ve been saying for many years - Hispanics are a notoriously late breaking vote. (Also more challenging than whites to accurately poll). This poll would suggest Hispanics are deciding in a typical late breaking fashion and in a highly typical support range

Notice the gender gap amongst Hispanic voters. This growing trend is something we’ll be studying and analyzing over the next year in great detail.

Bottom line: This is good news for Biden. This suggests all the great work by @ProjectLincoln @NuestroPAC @MiFamiliaVota @UnidosUSAF and the Joe Biden campaign are starting to have their intended effect.