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Dear @tunkuv, other journalists,
Given that @WhiteHouse is interested in @MartinKulldorff et al.'s #theGreatBarringtonDeclaration, their #misguided approach remains a timely topic.
Here's a list of questions you can ask next time:
(thread)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/epidemiologists-stray-from-the-covid-herd-11603477330 via @WSJ
Given that @WhiteHouse is interested in @MartinKulldorff et al.'s #theGreatBarringtonDeclaration, their #misguided approach remains a timely topic.
Here's a list of questions you can ask next time:
(thread)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/epidemiologists-stray-from-the-covid-herd-11603477330 via @WSJ
1) What is your definition of "lockdown"? "Lockdown" can mean various things, from limiting the business hours of restaurants to closing schools to establishing hard curfews enforced by the police. "Lockdown" is a key concept of your argument, yet you never define it. Why? 2/
2) What is your definition of "current lockdown policy" (in the WSJ piece). Like policies in the U.S.? Taiwan? Cambodia? Rwanda? Several exist: does your "lockdowns-always-have -net-negative-effects" claim apply to them all? Don't you think you should be more nuanced here? 3/
3) How long do you think an infected individual will be immune to the virus? What is the basis of your thinking? Your whole claim seems to be 100% dependent on the (currently unknowable) answer to this single question: what if your estimate on this turns out to be wrong? 4/
4) Based on your estimate on the duration of individual-level immunity, how long can it take max. for a population to reach herd immunity (i.e. before the first infected individuals become susceptible again)? Your claim seems to depend on this question. What is your answer? 5/
5) Your "focused protection" approach seems to assume that it is possible to "protect the vulnerable" while the virus spreads in the rest of the population. Is there evidence that it is? Would it be economically feasible? While we're at this, how do you define 'vulnerable?' 6/
6) What's your thinking on possible long-term health effects of those infected who won't die? How many will have them? How detrimental will they be? What about their economic impact?
You haven't addressed any of these questions before: are they not relevant? 7/7
You haven't addressed any of these questions before: are they not relevant? 7/7
