Will the Caucasus become the Balkans of the 21st Century: a (frequently overlooked) conflict-prone region that eventually sparks a wider war?
Let's compare the Caucasus 2020 to the Balkans 1914
New clashes broke out between Azerbaijan and ethnic Armenian forces over Nagorno-Karabakh a day after talks in Washington to try to end the deadliest fighting in the mountain enclave in more than a...https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-armenia-azerbaijan/new-clashes-in-nagorno-karabakh-after-washington-talks-idUSKBN2790BC
(1) Staunch rivalries (and territorial disputes) in the region
(2) Region marred by conflict
(3) Alliance ties to outside powers
The Russo-Georgian War, the August War, or for some simply the “five-day war,” was an important departure point in U.S.-Russian relations, and in Europeanhttps://warontherocks.com/2018/08/the-august-war-ten-years-on-a-retrospective-on-the-russo-georgian-war/
Most notably, there were two wars in the region, in 1912...
France, the United States and Russia will step up efforts to end fighting between Azeri and ethnic Armenian forces in the South Caucasus by holding talks in Geneva on Thursday, as fears of a regional...https://www.reuters.com/article/armenia-azerbaijan-int/iran-fears-regional-war-as-azeri-and-armenian-leaders-trade-accusations-idUSKBN26S1A5
Chain gangs and passed bucks: predicting alliance patterns in multipolarity - Volume 44 Issue 2https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/chain-gangs-and-passed-bucks-predicting-alliance-patterns-in-multipolarity/F14C4DDDF83A484B673A55E1D925CDAA
To simplify things, let's focus on Russia.
To Concede or to Resist? The Restraining Effect of Military Alliances - Volume 68 Issue 4https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/to-concede-or-to-resist-the-restraining-effect-of-military-alliances/5AE6E043122ECF3754F42E106362DECC
But the short answer is that Russia, at the moment, is over extended -- it's presently involved in TOO MANY conflicts. https://thehill.com/opinion/international/521543-armenia-azerbaijan-conflict-adds-to-putins-headaches-wests-worries
Vladimir Putin has gained the reputation of a dexterous architect of foreign policy who can turn a weak set of cards into winning hands — but recent events call into question such an evaluation.https://thehill.com/opinion/international/521543-armenia-azerbaijan-conflict-adds-to-putins-headaches-wests-worries
But the same might have been said of the Balkans in 1911, 1912, or 1913