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North / South epidemiology and the economic implications
A thread
A few have asked why the north has far higher rate of infection and why take off faster
(It is one for the epidemiologists to sort
Probably no single answer)
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A thread
A few have asked why the north has far higher rate of infection and why take off faster
(It is one for the epidemiologists to sort
Probably no single answer)
1
Why sooner & faster in north
timing lockdown release in June & differential impact
London had earlier peak (more concentrated pop, more connected city, travel related seeding) but had subsided to lower level of infection than rest of country (particularly north) by mid June
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timing lockdown release in June & differential impact
London had earlier peak (more concentrated pop, more connected city, travel related seeding) but had subsided to lower level of infection than rest of country (particularly north) by mid June
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Was once a good BBC analysis on the impact of release of national lockdown on deaths in the north
Argument was lockdown end was timed to epidemic curve in London
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Argument was lockdown end was timed to epidemic curve in London
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Easy to say but govt policy seems London / SE centric (obviously) thus when lockdown released higher residual infection (and a bit lower illness induced immunity – 10% vs c6% - but that prob not a dealbreaker) in the north
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Given that death is an indicator of level of community easy to make a case about higher infection rate in the north at the point of lockdown release
Corroborated by check back over the PHE surveillance reports going back months
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/weekly-covid-19-surveillance-report-published
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Corroborated by check back over the PHE surveillance reports going back months
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/weekly-covid-19-surveillance-report-published
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My guess is poorer performance on contact tracing (I've not done the analysis on that) in north vs south
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Also contributing to speedier take off is the mix is different economy and workforce structure
In general, the jobs that can’t be done remotely are lower paid (and more prevalent in the North), so again the most deprived/BAME/young people are impacted the most.
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In general, the jobs that can’t be done remotely are lower paid (and more prevalent in the North), so again the most deprived/BAME/young people are impacted the most.
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@CentreforCities argue the same point about it effectively being the Greater SE v the rest (apart from the odd city like Leeds and Edinburgh)
less than 40% can work from home versus 60% in London
HT @LouisaBenchmark for the find
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less than 40% can work from home versus 60% in London
HT @LouisaBenchmark for the find
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To demonstrate at city level one of my team did an awesome visualisation of that
Upshot = early on infection equally spread across the deciles, but then concentrates in decile 2-4 (where all the low pay / face to face work is)
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Upshot = early on infection equally spread across the deciles, but then concentrates in decile 2-4 (where all the low pay / face to face work is)
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Poorer isolation on account of financial issues inherent in above rather than north south differences in inherent compliance
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So there is earlier and faster take off in the north
Can be explained by underpinning epidemiology, London centric policy making, structural factors in the economy and incomplete contact tracing and isolation
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Can be explained by underpinning epidemiology, London centric policy making, structural factors in the economy and incomplete contact tracing and isolation
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Yet now we have - for understandable and valid reasons - suppression interventions that will exacerbate geographic economic inequality
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Then take off accelerated by reopen of school and uni
Education is good and an inherent economic investment
Good thread on uni / pub trade off is well articulated here
https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1316246341752950788?s=20
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Education is good and an inherent economic investment
Good thread on uni / pub trade off is well articulated here
https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1316246341752950788?s=20
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