1. The crucial problem at the moment isn’t so much the absence of leadership as the predominance of very bad leadership.

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2. The evidence is, as they say, visible from space. And those among us who are performatively short sighted need only reach for their glasses and read the front page of the Sunday Times.

Bad leadership does not come close.

3. There are two obvious questions. Firstly, what might good leadership look like? Secondly, what are the implications of bad leadership?

4. It is impossible to escape our dismal context of the pandemic and rapidly approaching botched Brexit. Both are very different from. But they have two similarities from a leadership perspective.

5. Firstly, in scale and complexity they are magnifiers of existing flaws and inadequacies. Minor problems in normal times are transformed into huge issues.

6. Secondly, they involve imposing situations that (at least in the short term) may not be popular with substantial sections of the population.

7. For example, social engagement restrictions, and, in the case of Brexit, the inevitable disruption caused by the failure to prepare adequately, the latter compounded by not delaying the end of the transition period.

8. Good leadership would recognise both points.

9. Complexity would be eschewed for clarity and simplicity.

Every decision would take into account the strain experienced by the state.

Competence would be the lens through which actions are evaluated  

Incompetence would have consequences.

10. Most importantly, good leadership would recognise that trust is its most precious asset.

11. Not just the trust of its natural supporters. National problems require a national approach. Good leadership would act on behalf of the country as a whole, rejecting regional and political differences.

And it would not tolerate cronyism.

12. Every decision would be scrutinised for its impact on the people’s trust in the state.

13. Loss of trust is a principal impact of bad leadership and its key implication is the erosion of the state’s capacity to govern.

14. It doesn’t matter the size of the majority or freshness of the political mandate. If people don’t trust the government they are much less likely to believe what it says or do what it wants.

15. Examples abound. A large section of business thinks transition will be extended. The EU doesn’t seem to think the UK is serious about no deal. most worrying of all, compliance with Covid related protocols is diminishing.

16. Just as nature abhors a vacuum so people will seek leadership - people they can trust - elsewhere from the government.

17. There is a reason why politicians like Nicola Sturgeon and Andy Burnham and their causes are so popular and it is not just to do with their personal qualities.

18. They are trusted by substantial majorities while the government is not.

19. At the best of times this would be a difficult situation but in this the worst of times it is unsustainable.

/ends