So, big picture, there are two or three "stories" we can tell about the BC election. [Thread]

1. This is a "COVID" election. It's pretty clear that incumbent parties that take the pandemic seriously have enjoyed a bump in polling and, when elections occur, in the vote. In this story, the result gets an asterisk, and we don't read any larger trends into it.

2. This is a "weak opposition/leader" election. The Liberals picked a compromise leader, one who didn't enjoy strong support throughout the party. The campaign never really hit its stride, and the NDP was able to walk to victory without a meaningful challenge.

3. This is where things get interesting. This could be a "realignment" election, in which long-term changes in the electorate become evident. The Liberals traditionally have been supported by an unwieldy coalition of federal Liberals and federal Conservatives.

That coalition was held together by promises of sound technocratic government, balanced budgets, an economy-first message, limited action on things like climate, and a general fear of the "bad old days" of the 1990s NDP.

As long as they were assured regular trips to the premier's office, it held together under Campbell and Clark. It was always awkward, though. Now that the NDP has revived its fortunes and put the lie to its old rep, the prospect of imminent victory no longer holds it together.

The modern BC NDP actually looks a lot like the modern federal Liberal party — cautious, mild, fairly centrist progressivism. It even tries to combine carbon taxes and (LNG) pipelines!

Under those pressures, the BC Liberal vote seems to have fractured—at least temporarily—with many progressives turning to the NDP, and a few more conservative voters actually turning to the BC Conservatives, who are performing better than expected in a few ridings.

There's likely truth to all three stories, but whoever is the next leader of the Liberals (going out on a limb to say it won't be Wilkinson) is going to have to figure how to pick up the pieces, and reposition the party in this new environment.

No matter how charismatic the new leader may be, it might not be possible to get the old band together. The next iteration of the BC Liberals may have to choose between holding onto Conservative voters and competing in urban ridings; it may not be able to do both any more.

Important point. The Conservatives were around 10% in a number of ridings, and they did that with virtually no province-wide profile. They won 18%(!) in Chilliwack, and have made Abbotsford-Mission a toss-up. In ridings like that, a right of centre crack-up has already happened. https://twitter.com/BlairKing_ca/status/1320385009816014848

An irony in this, incidentally, is that proportional representation (or even alternative vote) might've come in handy about now for a fractured centre-right coalition.

And if the Greens continue to show strongly and maintain the more leftward focus they seem to have under Ms Furstenau, the NDP may one day find themselves in a similar situation.

The province may have a number of three- and even four-party riding races on its hands in future elections, with the Greens and/or the Conservatives showing strongly in different parts of the province. Would make for fascinating but unpredictable elections.

All that is still caveated not only by the need to wait for the mail in ballots, but also to see what happens once the current COVID crisis subsides. NDP looks like a natural governing party right now, but that might be a temporary phenomenon. Time will tell.

Fin (for now).