FIGHT TO THE FINISH #11

The #DistrictOfTheDay: Iowa’s 3rd
The Democrat: Cindy Axne (inc.)
The Republican: David Young

~~~CURRENT RATINGS~~~
Cook Political: Lean D
Crystal Ball: Lean D
538 Classic: Likely D

My prediction: Democratic hold

ABOUT THE DISTRICT: Talk about a split district. The bulk of this IA-03’s population lies within Polk County, home to Des Moines. The remaining fifteen counties are significantly less populated and also far more conservative, meaning both parties have firm ground here.

THE HISTORY: From 1995 to 2015, the district was represented by Republican Tom Latham. He retired in 2014, a great year for Republicans, and David Young easily held the seat for his party. The district swung from Obama+4 to Trump+3, much like the rest of the state.

THE DEMOCRAT is Rep. Cindy Axne (D–West Des Moines), who flipped this seat in 2018. A graduate of the University of Iowa, Axne spent several years working in Iowa state government. Today, she is a member of the Agriculture Committee—the sole Iowan to sit on it.

THE REPUBLICAN is David Young, who represented IA-03 from 2015 to 2019. He’s back for a rematch. Formerly Chuck Grassley’s chief of staff, in Congress he was a member of the Main Street Partnership of moderate Republican representatives and sat on the Appropriations Committee.

IN 2018 Democrats flipped this seat for the first time in decades. Axne carried only 1 of IA-03’s 16 counties (Polk), but she did so by 16%, enough to offset greater losses in smaller counties. She did well in more suburban Dallas County as well, a longtime GOP locale.

MY PREDICTION: The Des Moines area is growing at a very rapid rate. The city may not be huge, but it’s large enough that Axne has a strong buffer in case of steeper losses in the more rural counties. Her seat on the Agriculture Committee may also help her peel off some R farmers.