I guess we have to talk about this:
• SCOTUS is scheduled to hear oral argument on 11/10
• It is almost certain that ACB will be on the Court by then
• We do not know when the Court will issue a decision or what it will decide, let's talk about the uncertainty – a thread https://twitter.com/mattbc/status/1320149115284688896
• SCOTUS is scheduled to hear oral argument on 11/10
• It is almost certain that ACB will be on the Court by then
• We do not know when the Court will issue a decision or what it will decide, let's talk about the uncertainty – a thread https://twitter.com/mattbc/status/1320149115284688896
We don't know:
what SCOTUS will decide; when SCOTUS will decide it; who will control the White House come January 20th, who will control the Senate.
There are a lot of unknowns, a lot of uncertainty... there's a lot.
what SCOTUS will decide; when SCOTUS will decide it; who will control the White House come January 20th, who will control the Senate.
There are a lot of unknowns, a lot of uncertainty... there's a lot.
But we do know that it's very unlikely that SCOTUS will decide the ACA case before 1/20
How do we know that?
For each case SCOTUS has decided up until now, we know the date they heard the case & the date they issued an opinion.
How do we know that?
For each case SCOTUS has decided up until now, we know the date they heard the case & the date they issued an opinion.
This lets scholars do all sorts of interesting computations.
Here's a @SCOTUSblog post looking at this sort of aggregate data: https://www.scotusblog.com/2018/05/empirical-scotus-out-of-steam-or-out-of-time/
Here's a @SCOTUSblog post looking at this sort of aggregate data: https://www.scotusblog.com/2018/05/empirical-scotus-out-of-steam-or-out-of-time/
More interestingly for us, is the time it takes to decide "big cases" - they tend to take awhile.
https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3799&context=dlj
https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3799&context=dlj
So, essentially, what I'm saying is: it's unlike the Court destroys the ACA before January 20th. So we have to win the fucking election. We have to. We must.
Because then a President Biden can work with a Democratic Congress to save the ACA.
Because then a President Biden can work with a Democratic Congress to save the ACA.