one of the things that reading a lot about biases and heuristics has taught me is that, when someone claims to be an expert, you really need to think about what expertise would actually look like in the field they're in and whether it's even possible to possess it. https://twitter.com/HananyaNaftali/status/1319805814211739648

because 95+% of the time, 'experts' are just bullshitting without having any idea whatsoever that they're doing it.

The biggest question is: What is it that's actually happened in the past that's some sort of repeatable phenomenon, recurring often enough that it can be applied to today's scenario with some confidence? Not: Am I saying the same thing that all the other 'experts' say?