(1/5) In 2016, the 3rd party vote was larger than the difference between Trump and Clinton in 13 states and 1 district in Nebraska. Together, they were worth 155 electoral votes. 3rd Party effect was much greater in 2016 than in 2000. #Election2020
(2/5) Yet the 3rd party contenders in 2016 were not well funded & did not participate in the debates. So many experts did not expect them to have this major effect.
(3/5) We don’t talk about those 155 electoral votes very often, and it’s because we don’t know the composition of the 3rd Party vote. Were they GOP voters who didn’t like Trump, Dems who didn’t want to vote for HRC, or true 3rd Party folks?
(4/5) Of those 13 states where the 3rd Party vote was greater than the difference between HRC and Trump, 7 states (plus that district in NE), ended up going red: MI, FL, WI, AZ, NC, PA, & UT. They total up to 108 electoral votes.
(5/5) So if that 2016 3rd Party vote in those 7 states swings toward Biden (the only new name on the ballot), it’s a game changer. All hands on deck. 10 days to go. #VoteLikeYourLifeDependsOnIt