1/ Beyond the headlines, some points mentioned in the article.

"I've said it before: we can get the house squeaky clean but someone's going to walk in with muddy footprints." https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-25/coronavirus-preparing-for-the-third-wave/12802070

2/ "We're going to keep seeing incursions and outbreaks. Some of those may take off to bigger waves," says McVernon. "Any guarantee of certainty is a lie."

3a "And in an unsettling Catch-22, success in supressing the virus could create a context that leaves Australia vulnerable to its resurgence.

"It's very hard maintaining that sense of alarm when there's nothing active around you to be to feel alarmed about," McVernon believes."

3b. I think this is especially the case outside Sydney & Victoria as they will have been very rusty if a breach happens.

4/ however the article mentions things we can do. The first: contact tracing that works (100% agree). Australia is extremely well prepared on this front now.

5a. ABC say avoiding a superspreader. My opinion is that good management of contact tracing makes this irrelevant. If a superspreader guard was in NSW it would have been treated no different to their existing Crossroads based clusters.

This is definitely true. Australians will want to maintain a covid-free status (even in Melbourne) so I'd expect high public cooperation.

6. ABC then mention borders & bubbles. I think states should definitely close borders if they sense a threat from a breach, but Duckett is being absurd here talking about NSW and SA.

ah

Absolutely. Australia should be fine with this over the summer (save for wet weather and heatwaves). A breach happening in late autumn or winter could be an issue. Actually knowing this means we will have less beach scolding.

Absolutely we are compliant (the cop nation etc). Even in Melbourne there is general trust for the public health message, at least now we know what happens when people don't listen like Melbourne in June.

Agree that UK & US are a mess. Having uncontrolled spread does that. Have to disagree with the point about Vietnam. Australia is starting to rely on digital technology that works.

We are pretty much at near zero. I feel like trust and compliance in Melbourne is still high for the majority of the population, at least with eased restrictions.

Ok that NSW/VIC thing is a complete lie. NSW was higher for a few days and they're back to zero local. And we still have a few unknowns in Melbourne. But the third point is on the money (I think NSW strongly understands this).

Sorry but no. Maybe in Victoria where this is happening anyway, but people will wear masks when the threat level increases. Mandatory masks in a covid-free environment don't make sense.

Based Bennett delivers again. Even more important is stringent management of quarantine, hotel quarantine and HQ hospitals so that the public doesn't have to bear the responsibility of covid like Melbourne & overseas.

The border is the most important line of defence.

Absolutely agree, but think governments would be politically stupid not to invest in public health.

Infrastructure for vaccination definitely needs to be considered. If we maintain near zero status for long term then vaccine won't be as pressing as it is overseas.

overload of paranoid questions, sheesh

In the words of Jim Carrey "So you're saying there's a chance?" Obviously it's not 0% or 100% (I have zero clue myself). The comment about managing 700 cases per day is irrelevant if as Bennett says you control your chances and plan for bad luck.

Big swipe at states like WA IMO where transmission potential could be really high. But Melbournians might be ready to let off some steam when the moment comes so not sure.

Alright that concludes it. My conclusion is that our chances of future local outbreaks from overseas are certain (see NZ and Vietnam), but incredibly skeptical that with all the changes to public health resourcing, that this will lead to a "third wave".