...about COVID numbers.
(Note -I’m often up for a reasonable look at varied viewpoints, and can get along with people that I also violently disagree with. )

The 2 broad takes (with lots in between are

1) Not a big deal calm down girlie

2) holy #%*^ better do better

/1

So for the “no big deal” crowd-
Let’s say case# and percent positivity and hospitalizations are all increasing because of increased testing, or maybe numbers are right but it’s less lethal

(both of those are *very unlikely*)#
/2

First, the “no changes” thought experiment - we do nothing different, ride it out. Heck. Open up more. Infect the healthy - get it over with.
If you are right, everything is fine.
If you are wrong, densely populated areas see overcapacity hospitals excess preventable deaths
/3

Second thought experiment: the strategic restriction approach. We pull together, see specific restrictions targeting where transmission is hot, likely for several weeks. Gathering sizes lower, people mostly are with nearest and dearest (outside essential public contacts.)
/4

...People show good citizenship by masking, handwashing.
If you are right this is an overreaction. Inconvenient too.
If you are wrong we just got together to save lives by pretty doable, reasonable measures.
Temporary inconvenience versus lives? I know which I’d pick.
/5

Reminding you also that playing chicken with #COVID19 is really dumb. Lots of second waves all over the world. Actions in the early days of an uptick are crucial in determining the peak of the badness.
And if it turns out to not be a big deal we did it RIGHT not wrong.
/fin