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Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review
tl;dr
* crisis level: 270 cases/day (28.8 per 100k)
* that& #39;s +73% over 1wk, +138% over 3wks
* it& #39;s also back above where Harvard says shutdowns are necessary
* our current 36k total cases will double as early as Jan1
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Covid Wk-In-Review
tl;dr
* crisis level: 270 cases/day (28.8 per 100k)
* that& #39;s +73% over 1wk, +138% over 3wks
* it& #39;s also back above where Harvard says shutdowns are necessary
* our current 36k total cases will double as early as Jan1
#Vote
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1/" title="Memphis/Shelby CountyCovid Wk-In-Reviewtl;dr* crisis level: 270 cases/day (28.8 per 100k)* that& #39;s +73% over 1wk, +138% over 3wks* it& #39;s also back above where Harvard says shutdowns are necessary* our current 36k total cases will double as early as Jan1 #Vote https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt="">1/" class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
Here are daily cases, since reopening & since Sept1, plus daily positive tests since they started being reported Sept18.
270 cases/day, today
156, 1wk ago
154, 2wks ago
114, 3wks ago
130, 4wks ago
178, 5wks ago
118, 6wks ago
+73% over 1wk
+138%, 3wks
+129%, 6wks
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270 cases/day, today
156, 1wk ago
154, 2wks ago
114, 3wks ago
130, 4wks ago
178, 5wks ago
118, 6wks ago
+73% over 1wk
+138%, 3wks
+129%, 6wks
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We& #39;re at the highest levels since July, 12wks ago.
Our case rate is up to 28.8 daily cases per 100k. That& #39;s the sixth-highest on record, behind only the 5wks of July.
The previous 6 weeks:
1wk, 16.6
2wks, 16.4
3wks, 12.2
4wks, 13.9
5wks, 19.0
6wks, 12.6
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Our case rate is up to 28.8 daily cases per 100k. That& #39;s the sixth-highest on record, behind only the 5wks of July.
The previous 6 weeks:
1wk, 16.6
2wks, 16.4
3wks, 12.2
4wks, 13.9
5wks, 19.0
6wks, 12.6
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A reminder: Harvard& #39;s Global Health Institute says that 25 daily cases per 100k is the "tipping point" where stay-at-home orders become necessary.
We& #39;re at 29 per 100k.
We& #39;ve lost control of the spread.
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We& #39;re at 29 per 100k.
We& #39;ve lost control of the spread.
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Here& #39;s the health dept& #39;s chart of cases/day, btw. You can clearly see that the trendline is headed up.
(NOTE: This graphs the data by specimen collection date, which is not publicly available, but it lags by 6 days. I graph cases by the date they are reported to the public.)
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(NOTE: This graphs the data by specimen collection date, which is not publicly available, but it lags by 6 days. I graph cases by the date they are reported to the public.)
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Here is testing, since reopening &since Sept1.
Until a few wks ago, they only reported tests for ppl never tested before. That& #39;s the blue line, w/the 7-day avg in red.
Now they are also reporting total tests. I& #39;ve added that here in the green line, w/the avg in yellow.
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Until a few wks ago, they only reported tests for ppl never tested before. That& #39;s the blue line, w/the 7-day avg in red.
Now they are also reporting total tests. I& #39;ve added that here in the green line, w/the avg in yellow.
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It& #39;s clear that testing does not explain the spike in cases bc testing can& #39;t keep up with case growth.
And the lack of testing means we are missing cases.
To repeat: Our case counts are artificially low bc of low testing.
+49% over 1wk (cases +73%)
+39 over 4wks (vs +108%)
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And the lack of testing means we are missing cases.
To repeat: Our case counts are artificially low bc of low testing.
+49% over 1wk (cases +73%)
+39 over 4wks (vs +108%)
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Case positivity has risen from 10.8%+ to 16.2%+ over the past 3wks. The 2nd highest wk on record.
Test positivity hit a wkly low of 5.3%, but has risen over the past 3wks to 7.2%+ today. That& #39;s the highest on record.
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Test positivity hit a wkly low of 5.3%, but has risen over the past 3wks to 7.2%+ today. That& #39;s the highest on record.
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Covid hospitalizations are way up too.
With cases spiking even more in surrounding rural counties, this is a big concern, as they are already starting to send patients to Memphis hospitals.
I worry that we& #39;ll have to open the old CA building before Christmas.
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With cases spiking even more in surrounding rural counties, this is a big concern, as they are already starting to send patients to Memphis hospitals.
I worry that we& #39;ll have to open the old CA building before Christmas.
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Here& #39;s the graph of daily cases again.
Look at that red line (7-day avg) back in June and into July: 116, 183, 196, 316...425.
Now look at it in October: 114, 154, 156, 270...???
We& #39;re staring right at another July, but with Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year on deck.
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Look at that red line (7-day avg) back in June and into July: 116, 183, 196, 316...425.
Now look at it in October: 114, 154, 156, 270...???
We& #39;re staring right at another July, but with Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year on deck.
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With our current growth rate, with total cases growing 0.8% per day, we& #39;re looking at 371/day by Thanksgiving.
But growth is increasing.
And at 0.9%, it& #39;s 430/day. At 1%, it& #39;s 494.
We could see over 500/day by T& #39;giving & 700/day by New Year if we don& #39;t slow the growth.
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But growth is increasing.
And at 0.9%, it& #39;s 430/day. At 1%, it& #39;s 494.
We could see over 500/day by T& #39;giving & 700/day by New Year if we don& #39;t slow the growth.
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Case 10k, July1 (105 days).
Case 20k, July29 (28 days).
Case 30k, Sept19 (52 days).
Case 40k will come Nov4-7 (46-49 days).
Case 50k will come Nov27-Dec5 (23-28 days).
Case 60k, Dec15-28 (18-23 days).
Case 100k, Feb4-Mar2.
Case 150k, Mar17-Apr22.
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Case 20k, July29 (28 days).
Case 30k, Sept19 (52 days).
Case 40k will come Nov4-7 (46-49 days).
Case 50k will come Nov27-Dec5 (23-28 days).
Case 60k, Dec15-28 (18-23 days).
Case 100k, Feb4-Mar2.
Case 150k, Mar17-Apr22.
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After today& #39;s 414 new cases today, we& #39;re now at 35,901 total cases.
And we& #39;ll double that sometime between Jan1 and Jan20.
By New Year, another 350 people will die of covid locally. And 350 more by the end of winter.
That& #39;s on top of the 563 already dead.
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And we& #39;ll double that sometime between Jan1 and Jan20.
By New Year, another 350 people will die of covid locally. And 350 more by the end of winter.
That& #39;s on top of the 563 already dead.
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In his thread on Thanksgiving last night, @ASlavitt said the following:
"Eventually we will need to skip a holiday."
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1319801901244948480
14/">https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/...
"Eventually we will need to skip a holiday."
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1319801901244948480
14/">https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/...
And this:
"We could have stayed away Memorial Day and had a good Independence Day. We didn’t. We could have been careful on the 4th & had a good Labor Day. We didn’t. We could have been careful Labor Day. Nope."
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"We could have stayed away Memorial Day and had a good Independence Day. We didn’t. We could have been careful on the 4th & had a good Labor Day. We didn’t. We could have been careful Labor Day. Nope."
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Now we& #39;re going to need to skip Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year& #39;s parties. Unless you gather outdoors.
The more we gather and celebrate holidays, the worse this pandemic gets...and the longer it lasts.
I know we& #39;re all tired.
But...
WINTER IS COMING.
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The more we gather and celebrate holidays, the worse this pandemic gets...and the longer it lasts.
I know we& #39;re all tired.
But...
WINTER IS COMING.
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And winter, here, is metaphorical and literal.
But the literal is the problem. It& #39;s cold. And when it& #39;s cold, people gather indoors. And that& #39;s a recipe for covid spread.
We know that indoors is about 19 times less safe than outdoors. That& #39;s what makes winter so dangerous.
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But the literal is the problem. It& #39;s cold. And when it& #39;s cold, people gather indoors. And that& #39;s a recipe for covid spread.
We know that indoors is about 19 times less safe than outdoors. That& #39;s what makes winter so dangerous.
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On the first day of summer, we were avg& #39;ing 183 cases/day. The last day of summer, 181.
Now, only one-third of the way into fall, we& #39;re already up to 270/day.
It& #39;ll get worse than the worst of the summer before winter even begins.
Winter will be bad.
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Now, only one-third of the way into fall, we& #39;re already up to 270/day.
It& #39;ll get worse than the worst of the summer before winter even begins.
Winter will be bad.
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This election is crucial.
Trump has failed. The blood of 225k ppl are on his hands.
And McConnell & Senate Republicans refuse to provide financial relief to cities, to states, to businesses, to families. Blood is on their hands too.
They must go. All of them.
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Trump has failed. The blood of 225k ppl are on his hands.
And McConnell & Senate Republicans refuse to provide financial relief to cities, to states, to businesses, to families. Blood is on their hands too.
They must go. All of them.
#Vote
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