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Thread: All the "Smart People" have been saying NM is a blue state that Trump can't win. Not so fast. Did you know that in 2016 Gary Johnson got 9% of the vote? Trump lost by 8% to Clinton. Not all Johnson voters would have gone for Trump, but enough to make it much closer. 1/10
And Trump was the "nutjob" that a lot of R's were reluctant to vote for. I know because I was one. (I told folks I was voting for Pence.) This election I'm a "Crawl over Broken Glass" (COBG) Trump voter. And there are A LOT of us. 2/10
But are there enough of us? I've been watching elections here for 30+ years. The same pattern repeats itself every election. The oilpatches and eastern rural areas vote R, The north, Las Cruces and the Natives vote D, and ABQ is the big battleground. 3/10
When a R wins its because they can either win big in ABQ like Johnson or peel off enough Hispanic votes like Martinez. (This is why Pearce could never win statewide) 4/10
This year looks like this - The oilpatch and rural East are COBG Trump voters. Turnout will be huge. White liberals in Santa Fe, Los Alamos and Taos - big for Biden cause they hate Trump. ABQ may go Biden, but it will be close enough to not determine the statewide outcome. 5/10
This means the election is in the hands of the working class Hispanics and Native Americans in the rural areas. Trump just needs to pick up 5-10% more of this vote than he got in 2016.
I looked at past elections county by county:
6/10
I looked at past elections county by county:
6/10
In 2004 Bush got 35% in Rio Arriba and 34% in McKinley. Trump only got 24% in 2016 in both counties. (This was actually better than Romney in 2012.) A lot has changed since 2016 and Trump will get closer to Bush's number this time, I guarantee it. 7/10
If he does, its game over in my opinion. Trump wins New Mexico.
I'm not predicting a "Red Wave" here, it will be close and Ronchetti may not get those Trump voters in Rio Arriba and McKinley for obvious reasons. The Lujan name still counts for a lot. 8/10
I'm not predicting a "Red Wave" here, it will be close and Ronchetti may not get those Trump voters in Rio Arriba and McKinley for obvious reasons. The Lujan name still counts for a lot. 8/10
Ronchetti might do well enough in ABQ to pull it out though. I know he'll win big in Rio Rancho. And I get the impression that Lujan is not well liked in Native country. 9/10
Herrell wins big down south, the COBG Republicans down there will ensure that. I don't think Haaland loses but it might be close, she's just that bad. Fernandez walks in with 65%. I would vote for Alexis Johnson 25 times, but I'm not a democrat and we don't do that crap...10/10
End Thread: Sorry this went on too long. I tend to be Cliff Clavin at the end of the bar sometimes, just ask my wife. But I'm optimistic about our chances and really want to watch liberal heads explode Nov 8!
@Darrama_ @jws505 @ZoneBPatriot @thinkrednm @huskyinexile
@Darrama_ @jws505 @ZoneBPatriot @thinkrednm @huskyinexile
