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Thread: All the "Smart People" have been saying NM is a blue state that Trump can& #39;t win. Not so fast. Did you know that in 2016 Gary Johnson got 9% of the vote? Trump lost by 8% to Clinton. Not all Johnson voters would have gone for Trump, but enough to make it much closer. 1/10
And Trump was the "nutjob" that a lot of R& #39;s were reluctant to vote for. I know because I was one. (I told folks I was voting for Pence.) This election I& #39;m a "Crawl over Broken Glass" (COBG) Trump voter. And there are A LOT of us. 2/10
But are there enough of us? I& #39;ve been watching elections here for 30+ years. The same pattern repeats itself every election. The oilpatches and eastern rural areas vote R, The north, Las Cruces and the Natives vote D, and ABQ is the big battleground. 3/10
When a R wins its because they can either win big in ABQ like Johnson or peel off enough Hispanic votes like Martinez. (This is why Pearce could never win statewide) 4/10
This year looks like this - The oilpatch and rural East are COBG Trump voters. Turnout will be huge. White liberals in Santa Fe, Los Alamos and Taos - big for Biden cause they hate Trump. ABQ may go Biden, but it will be close enough to not determine the statewide outcome. 5/10
This means the election is in the hands of the working class Hispanics and Native Americans in the rural areas. Trump just needs to pick up 5-10% more of this vote than he got in 2016.
I looked at past elections county by county:
6/10
I looked at past elections county by county:
6/10
In 2004 Bush got 35% in Rio Arriba and 34% in McKinley. Trump only got 24% in 2016 in both counties. (This was actually better than Romney in 2012.) A lot has changed since 2016 and Trump will get closer to Bush& #39;s number this time, I guarantee it. 7/10
If he does, its game over in my opinion. Trump wins New Mexico.
I& #39;m not predicting a "Red Wave" here, it will be close and Ronchetti may not get those Trump voters in Rio Arriba and McKinley for obvious reasons. The Lujan name still counts for a lot. 8/10
I& #39;m not predicting a "Red Wave" here, it will be close and Ronchetti may not get those Trump voters in Rio Arriba and McKinley for obvious reasons. The Lujan name still counts for a lot. 8/10
Ronchetti might do well enough in ABQ to pull it out though. I know he& #39;ll win big in Rio Rancho. And I get the impression that Lujan is not well liked in Native country. 9/10
Herrell wins big down south, the COBG Republicans down there will ensure that. I don& #39;t think Haaland loses but it might be close, she& #39;s just that bad. Fernandez walks in with 65%. I would vote for Alexis Johnson 25 times, but I& #39;m not a democrat and we don& #39;t do that crap...10/10
End Thread: Sorry this went on too long. I tend to be Cliff Clavin at the end of the bar sometimes, just ask my wife. But I& #39;m optimistic about our chances and really want to watch liberal heads explode Nov 8!
@Darrama_ @jws505 @ZoneBPatriot @thinkrednm @huskyinexile
@Darrama_ @jws505 @ZoneBPatriot @thinkrednm @huskyinexile
