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Can Trump lose Florida and win the election?
Yes. And it isn't a pipe dream.
It is, however, not very likely.
Yes. And it isn't a pipe dream.
It is, however, not very likely.
What if Trump wins Florida?
(A 30% chance currently per 538. Likely that is a fair bit too low. It might be closer to 50%.)
Well, Biden still has lots of paths to victory, but it looks like a fairly even contest, slight edge Biden.
(A 30% chance currently per 538. Likely that is a fair bit too low. It might be closer to 50%.)
Well, Biden still has lots of paths to victory, but it looks like a fairly even contest, slight edge Biden.
I don't really like or trust the art of assigning electoral victory % chances. Just too many variables.
I do, however, on the basis of this thread, tend to suspect that forecasts placing Trump's chances *lower* than 25% are likely excluding or minimizing really important data.
I do, however, on the basis of this thread, tend to suspect that forecasts placing Trump's chances *lower* than 25% are likely excluding or minimizing really important data.
It is not unheard of, but extremely rare that I bet (was happy to take Sean McElwee's money when he insisted Bernie was going to bomb out of Iowa).
And I won't be betting on any US election thing.
But if someone gave me a $20 and said, put it on anything you'd like ...
And I won't be betting on any US election thing.
But if someone gave me a $20 and said, put it on anything you'd like ...
