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Thread on Banking Votes 1/
By today 54.2 million early votes have been cast. Let's do a quick bit of math, on 'banking votes' early. Don't worry, I will do all the numbers and we will keep this simple :-)
By today 54.2 million early votes have been cast. Let's do a quick bit of math, on 'banking votes' early. Don't worry, I will do all the numbers and we will keep this simple :-)
Banking Votes Thread 2/
This year is a wave election. A rough estimate is that about 150 million votes will be cast. Of those 54.2 million are already in. In normal years, that would be evenly split by both parties. Not this year, because of Trump's war against early voting
This year is a wave election. A rough estimate is that about 150 million votes will be cast. Of those 54.2 million are already in. In normal years, that would be evenly split by both parties. Not this year, because of Trump's war against early voting
Banking Votes Thread 3/
I will assume based on 4 way polling, that final count will be 53% Biden, 44% Trump (3% third party). Out of 150M votes Biden would get 80M and Trump 66M, when all votes counted.
How would early vote 54.2M then be split?
I will assume based on 4 way polling, that final count will be 53% Biden, 44% Trump (3% third party). Out of 150M votes Biden would get 80M and Trump 66M, when all votes counted.
How would early vote 54.2M then be split?
Banking Votes Thread 4/
This year because Trump has SUPPRESSED his OWN VOTE in early voting, lets say HALF who WOULD have voted GOP, have done so early. Instead of 24 million Trump votes early, only 12 million have arrived so far. But DEM vote is UP vs before. So rest of 54.2
This year because Trump has SUPPRESSED his OWN VOTE in early voting, lets say HALF who WOULD have voted GOP, have done so early. Instead of 24 million Trump votes early, only 12 million have arrived so far. But DEM vote is UP vs before. So rest of 54.2
Banking Votes Thread 5/
So of 54.2 million votes so far, if only 12 million went to Trump, 42 million went to Biden.
Next, lets assume HALF of the yet UNVOTED will do so early, and half on election day Nov 3. That is 48 million + 48 million
So of 54.2 million votes so far, if only 12 million went to Trump, 42 million went to Biden.
Next, lets assume HALF of the yet UNVOTED will do so early, and half on election day Nov 3. That is 48 million + 48 million
Banking Votes Thread 6/
Let us assume, that GOP gets its act together, and gets NORMAL early voting in last 10 days. So of 48 million early votes in next 10 days, that splits 22 million for Trump and 26 million for Biden. So going into November 3, the banked votes would be..
Let us assume, that GOP gets its act together, and gets NORMAL early voting in last 10 days. So of 48 million early votes in next 10 days, that splits 22 million for Trump and 26 million for Biden. So going into November 3, the banked votes would be..
Banking Votes Thread 7/
So by Nov 2, Biden would have banked 68 million votes and Trump only 34 million.
For Nov 3 live vote, Biden needs to only get 12 million to polling places, while Trump needs to get 32 million = 3x more work, VERY expensive, and Trump is broke
So by Nov 2, Biden would have banked 68 million votes and Trump only 34 million.
For Nov 3 live vote, Biden needs to only get 12 million to polling places, while Trump needs to get 32 million = 3x more work, VERY expensive, and Trump is broke
Banking Votes Thread 8/
Every single day is a 'risk' of something disastrous hitting EITHER campaign. The votes that are 'banked' will not be changed.
Biden has EXCESS funds, that he can use to CONVERT voters (= difficult, costly thing to achieve)
Biden has run BETTER campaign
Every single day is a 'risk' of something disastrous hitting EITHER campaign. The votes that are 'banked' will not be changed.
Biden has EXCESS funds, that he can use to CONVERT voters (= difficult, costly thing to achieve)
Biden has run BETTER campaign
Banking Votes Thread 9/
Trump voters are loyal to Trump, not loyal to GOP. Any 'disappointment' in Trump in final 10 days, will hit GOP, who is already down, and out of money, losing races they should be winning. They are terrified.
Trump is damaging GOP (not damaging Biden)
Trump voters are loyal to Trump, not loyal to GOP. Any 'disappointment' in Trump in final 10 days, will hit GOP, who is already down, and out of money, losing races they should be winning. They are terrified.
Trump is damaging GOP (not damaging Biden)
