Interesting listening to the @IndependentSage briefing on schools yesterday. They highlighted how cases of Covid-19 in primary school have increased sharply. Story here & thread below https://www.tes.com/news/coronavirus-schools-sharp-rise-primary-pupil-covid-cases-new-data-shows

But @IndependentSage also renewed calls for a Circuit breaker lockdown and said if it was done now it could start saving lives in December. https://www.tes.com/news/coronavirus-schools-sharp-rise-primary-pupil-covid-cases-new-data-shows They warned that currently deaths show a "relentless doubling every two weeks".

And this is very difficult reading but Professor Christina Pagel of UCL said the likelihood is that this will continue and also that those who will die of Covid in November will already have caught the virus now. She said this could mean 6,000 deaths over next 4 weeks

On the prospect of these deaths in November Prof Pagel said: "there is not much we can do about it.”
But she added: "If we can reduce transmission now, like right now, then we can save lives by 3 December and that is really what the circuit breaker is about.”

She then presented this graph which shows a projection of the impact of a circuit breaker and how they longer we leave the worst things will get in terms of cases and therefore deaths.

"A circuit breaker done later will always work but at the cost of tens of thousands more infections in the meantime." Watch this space I guess . . . .

A story to add to this thread on the @IndependentSage briefing on schools. It has called for secondary school pupils to wear masks in the weeks after a circuit breaker lockdown. It also says a circuit breaker held now will save lives in December. https://www.tes.com/news/experts-call-pupils-wear-masks-classrooms