Good thread on the lag between rising cases and rising deaths https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1319892084250165254

I happened to be looking at this issue in the Arizona data last night. In the last surge it was around 28 days between when it became clear cases were really rising and when it became clear deaths were really rising.

Eyeballing the AZ newly reported cases, I'd say the current rise in cases became clear around Oct 10, so if we have the same delay this time as last time newly reported deaths won't start rising until around Nov 7.

So get ready for weeks of "bUt dEaThs aRen'T risInG" used as a rationalization for not taking action.

Then, when newly reported deaths start rising, it will be too late to avoid a lot of deaths.

Last time Ducey closed bars & gyms just a few days after the rise in newly reported deaths became apparent around June 28, but it was too late to avoid thousands of deaths.