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Michael Appleton has used a 433 formation this season with great success, currently 3rd in the League so will be the hardest test to date.
Appleton was the chosen replacement for Cowley as Lincoln looked to develop a more attractive & expansive style of play. Last season there was limited success as he didn’t have the players he wanted to play this way but has brought in 15 new players this summer
Lincoln have been the most creative side so far this season with an xG of 13.19, scoring 12, and creating 15 big chances (joint 3rd highest in league)
Although this has all been boosted by the 5 penalties Lincoln have had this season so the question is if they can keep this up
Although this has all been boosted by the 5 penalties Lincoln have had this season so the question is if they can keep this up
Lincoln have the 7th lowest xG against so are defensively sound as well, they are level with us for shots against but a lower xG suggests they force opponents to shoot from range or lower % chances better than we do.
They have quite a passive approach defensively generally sitting off opponents. They have allow 13 passes per defensive action therefore let teams play out from the back, they also have a challenge intensity of 5.4 (lowest in league)
Challenge intensity is the amount of defensive actions performed per minute of opposition possession which gives a better picture of how teams defend when the opponent has the ball. Lincoln look to sit deeper but will still press, mainly looking to force an opponent long.
Lincoln will adjust their pressing depending on the formation they’re against but vs a 433 will set up as below when opponent builds up from a Goal Kick. The wingers will stay on & press the FB’s, Hopper will press CBs & one CM will step out to press the defensive midfielder.
This deeper positioning of the wingers allows them to easily come back & get into a lower block.
Due to the lack of pressing vs our CBs, Dozzell doesn’t need to come as deep into a back 3 but will still need to offer for the ball continuously with the out-ball to FBs marked.
Due to the lack of pressing vs our CBs, Dozzell doesn’t need to come as deep into a back 3 but will still need to offer for the ball continuously with the out-ball to FBs marked.
In a lower block Lincoln will be as below with one CM usually stepping out to apply pressure & wingers pressing as well. Both FBs can be got at so it is important we have quality out wide to create chances especially when Lincoln are sat deeper.
Lincoln are still yet to find a permanent partner for CB Lewis Monstma, Joe Walsh is better on the ball & more mobile than Adam Jackson but has problems in the air, where Jackson does well. However due to Monstma’s aerial prowess this weakness is hidden.
On the ball Lincoln will look to keep the ball & play out from the back but have a low possession % so far, probably mainly due to the passive approach off the ball.
From goal kicks Lincoln will line up as below with 3 players in the box to receive from the keeper. McGrandles will sit in between the striker + winger & could be used as a pressing trap for us if ball is played into his path. Jones will sit further up to form a 3-1 going forward
Often Lincoln are forced long into Hopper off goal kicks so this positioning of Jones allows 3 players near Hopper for the 2nd ball. If not long they often play into FBs, who are free, vs a 433 as the front 3 mark the 3 players in the box. Off goal kicks I would set up as below:
I would use Edwards to sit on Eyoma to cover the out ball into a FB, Hawkins & Judge press the CBs, use Bishop to press Roughan if it’s played into him, Huws can cover space & passing lanes to limit Lincoln’s progression & I would use McGrandles as a pressing trigger.
When pressing Lincoln I would go for a similar structure to our game vs Blackpool:
Lincoln’s right side is very strong with 43% of their play coming from that side so limiting this will be key to our success today.
Lincoln’s right side is very strong with 43% of their play coming from that side so limiting this will be key to our success today.
Due to their attacking threat down the right & our defensive weakness with Kenlock I would deploy Edwards further back on Eyoma, Hawkins on Montsma to force him long as he is very good playing out, Bishop advances to press Bridcutt & Judge sits in between Jackson & Roughan.
Further forwards Lincoln’s main threat is their two inside forwards, Grant & Johnson. They both like to come inside & sit in the half spaces leaving space for a FB or even a CM to overlap. Both CMs like to come wide & either cover for a run made by FB or make runs over/underlap
Jones is the one who mainly runs wide with McGrandles getting into the box for a potential cross. Neither of Lincoln’s FBs look to cross, mainly looking for a cut back inside to Johnson/Grant who are then more likely to cross due to their technical ability.
Brennan Johnson is Lincoln’s main threat in behind, pulling wide then runs inside on the blind side of the FB. He loves cutting in & taking on the FB so Kenlock could have a tough day but was superb defensively vs CJ Hamilton two weeks ago winning all 6 tackles.
From set pieces Lincoln are very strong, Jorge Grant has a superb delivery from dead ball situations & the CB Lewis Montsma has already scored 5 goals this season, all from set pieces so we will need to be very alert of him.
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