Thread by @Orla_Hegarty, [Thread] Last night the Chief Medical Officer finally said #covid19 is spread [...]

[Thread] Last night the Chief Medical Officer finally said #covid19 is spread “indoors in poor ventilation”

This is HUGELY SIGNIFICANT, & here’s why.. 1/ #covid19

..Ireland’s public health message is not in step with international scientific community & has not kept pace with 9 months of research.. so no warnings have been given about ~airborne~ virus spread that happens ~beyond 2m~
2/

..it’s now known this respiratory virus is caught from inhaling when breathing; risks from surfaces were over-stared so perspex screens & deep cleaning have distracted people from the most important prevention- ‘clean air’ (take 5 mins this is worth it) 3/

.. so if HSE/NPHET catch up quickly then nursing homes, schools, homes, workplaces & amenities can ~immediately~ take simple preventative measures to ‘air’ rooms regularly, filter & monitor high risk conditions; most of this is ~free~ or very low cost 4/ https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2020/10/18/improving-indoor-air-quality-prevent-covid-19/3566978001/

Ventilation and air filtration play a key role in preventing the spread of COVID-19 indoors

As schools and offices open up, here’s what building managers should do to reduce the risk of COVID-19 in the air we breathe

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2020/10/18/improving-indoor-air-quality-prevent-covid-19/3566978001/

.. nursing homes & over-crowded housing (incl direct provision, housing for homeless people, travellers, work dorms etc) need targeted prevention & support to make an immediate difference to stop ‘super-spread’ conditions

Stop the superspreading to stop the pandemic 5/

.. & it doesn’t take a crowd.. high risk #covid19 conditions can happen in a family homes in a very short time..
this is recent monitoring of CO2 (above red line shows high risk conditions) by @citlanx 6/

..which may explain recent ‘clusters’ in homes in closed windows when weather got colder

Last Spring the high-risk hot-spots were in yellow zone, temperatures 5-11°C & they’re back in October (zone: Wuhan, NY, Seattle, cities in Italy, Spain, France, Germany, UK, Ireland etc) 7/

..so there is far more hard evidence that this second #Covid19 wave is due to environmental conditions & human comfort... not ‘bad behaviour’ as claimed

Which means policing, fines & warnings may not be effective.. whereas clear advice, support & science-based rules may be 8/

..change signalled by @CMOIreland means @President_MU needs to re-run model to incl other factors

Spring lockdown had tailwind (rising temps, open windows, outdoor activity, shut schools) ..but Autumn lockdown has strong headwinds (cold, shut windows, open schools & fatigue) 9/

..& NPHET are currently using ‘average R’

..but acc to Prof Pennington: ‘In a care home, R number is probably 10. For whole population, R number may be below 1’

‘[average R] is useful in epidemiology textbook. It is not in public health measures’
https://reaction.life/hugh-pennington-interview-covid-19-is-about-superspreading-and-there-is-no-second-wave/ 10

Hugh Pennington interview: Covid-19 is about superspreading, and there is no second wave - Reaction

I was joined by Professor Hugh Pennington, an emeritus professor of bacteriology at the University of Aberdeen. He chaired inquiries … Continue reading "Hugh Pennington interview: Covid-19 is about...

https://reaction.life/hugh-pennington-interview-covid-19-is-about-superspreading-and-there-is-no-second-wave/

..most of known high-risk (high R) places are unchanged at Level 5 (schools, homes, care homes, direct provision, meat plants) & many others were already shut (pubs, restaurants, universities, offices etc)

..so changes in low-risk places (shops, sports) may not have impact /11

..‘HSE to employ 500 contact-tracers to track future Covid-19 patients, asking where they went & who they met. But, how many people are employed to look at our houses & buildings to prevent tens of thousands of people becoming infected in first place?’ /12 https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/why-good-ventilation-is-key-to-stopping-the-spread-of-covid-19-1.4374754

Why good ventilation is key to stopping the spread of Covid-19

Clean air far more important than clean hands

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/why-good-ventilation-is-key-to-stopping-the-spread-of-covid-19-1.4374754

.. can better ventilation work?

Japan has advised ‘3 Cs’ since February & in a population of 126m has had fewer #Covid19 deaths than Ireland /13

& in this case in Taiwan:

‘Improving ventilation was associated with 97% decrease in risk for contacts to become new infections & helped to end TB outbreak in a university’ /14 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ina.12639

Effect of ventilation improvement during a tuberculosis outbreak in underventilated university...

The role of ventilation in preventing tuberculosis (TB) transmission has been widely proposed in infection control guidance. However, conclusive evidence is lacking. Modeling suggested the threshold...

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ina.12639

..lessons from other #Covid19 case studies linked to ventilation can inform changes: meat plant recirculated air in Germany, call centre outbreak in Hong Kong, choir super-spread in USA, school air-con in Israel, a cruise ship, a bus in India..& this restaurant in China /15