To state the obvious this was a reckless statement by Trump that's likely to further complicate resolving the dispute over Ethiopia's dam. While it's certainly meant as supportive of Egypt, it may actually not be that helpful to Egypt. A thread on why https://twitter.com/i/status/1319764568164454400

Trump makes clear he views Ethiopia's dam as damaging to Egypt's vital interests & wonders why Egypt didn't destroy the project earlier before the dam neared completion as it has now. He also notes he cut all aid to Ethiopia until they make concessions to Egypt.

All this confirms Ethiopia's claim that the US was never an honest broker & justifies their decision to withdraw unilaterally from talks hosted by the US earlier this year. It will help intensify support for nationalist defiance at home which makes concessions even more difficult

Most analysts agree Egypt isn't keen on a military option for addressing its dispute with Ethiopia, but this statement by Trump could lower sense of risk in Cairo for pursuing such an action IF Trump is reelected. One must wonder what Trump has said privately to Egyptians on this

FWIW I still don't think Egypt is seriously considering bombing the dam, though they understandably won't want to rule it out as they likely believe the perceived threat adds to their leverage in talks. They may even welcome this statement as adding to that leverage.

But I do think this statement will complicate task before their negotiators & aid Ethiopia in drumming up support at the African Union whose member states will not be happy to see an American armed US partner threaten through the oval office an attack on another African nation.

I think the real motivation behind Trump's statement yesterday had nothing to do with Ethiopia, Egypt or the dam. It was him expressing anger that he wasn't getting credit for making another "deal" before the election & his sense that Ethiopia was to blame for denying him that

This denial of praise, as Trump sees it, is likely at the heart of his negative views towards Ethiopia, as well as a sense of being insulted that they chose not to show up to talks hosted by his Treasury Secretary. His friendlier ties to Sisi over Ahmed can't be discounted either

As hard as it is to focus beyond the noise Trump is creating, Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan will have to live with each other long after Trump is gone & should try to block out this distraction and focus on a sustainable, binding and durable agreement that makes cooperation possible.

Indeed, it would benefit much of the world to block out as much of Trump's noise as possible.

All three countries have legitimate interests and legitimate concerns that I have discussed at length previously. I do think it's possible for them to fairly balance those interests and concerns in an agreement.