Here's what I think about the virus. It is more lethal than flu, but not by much - it's about twice as deadly. So this is nothing like SARS or Ebola. It arrived in Europe earlier than we realised and everyone with a normal lifestyle will have been exposed to it last winter.

That doesn't mean we all caught it, but many of us did. Most cases have no symptoms. It's only really dangerous for the very old or those with certain underlying conditions. Tiny numbers of younger, healthier people have died with the virus.

I think this is because they must have caught a heavy viral load. Frequent exposure to large viral loads is dangerous for any adult - as we've seen with the number of casualties among healthcare workers. Fortunately, it's not difficult to avoid a heavy viral load.

Commonsense social distancing measures should be enough to prevent anyone with a normal lifestyle catching a heavy load of the virus. We can therefore go about our business much as we did in July and August without great danger.

So why is there a second wave? Because of the resumption of university education. Hotspots are clearly concentrated around areas with large student populations. This is a freshers' week flare-up that's already subsiding in places like Manchester.

And even so, this second wave is far smaller than the first - about a quarter of the size. And the virus is less lethal in this second wave, probably because so many cases are among younger age groups who easily fight it off.

I can excuse any Govt that wanted to lock down in March. It was new and scary and we didn't know how to deal with it. I think we know much more now. Lockdowns are a very blunt instrument that the WHO has said should be an absolute last resort.

Many of the most successful countries in this pandemic have avoided lockdowns altogether - South Korea, Taiwan, Sweden. So why are we persevering with them? I think the Govt and its advisers are spooked. They'd rather be overly cautious and avoid blame.

This will have a devastating economic effect, but that won't be their problem. No-one will ask SAGE how to tackle the unemployment crisis. Politicians themselves will blame the virus, as if they couldn't have done anything differently.

It will have a devastating health impact, too. Most people don't know anyone who's been seriously ill with the virus. But they know someone whose cancer diagnosis was delayed. They know people whose mental health has suffered. Old people who've fallen into dementia.

But again, these health impacts are less obvious than virus deaths, more long-term, easier to escape blame for. So Govts are focusing on getting virus deaths down, knowing that the voters won't ask about deaths from other conditions.

As Jonathan Sumption has consistently said, we've overreacted to this pandemic. When you compare the response to the Asian flu and Hong Kong flu in the 50s and 60s, it's clear society is more hysterical now. Emotion-driven TV news must be a big factor in this.

The number of deaths is absolutely normal for October, yet half the country is locked down, with families forbidden to see each other and businesses barred from opening. It feels more and more like the real pandemic is the hysteria that's taken hold, and not the virus itself.