Read on Twitter
Alright - here's where I'm at currently: Trump is going to win the election. The fact that he's a sizable dog is mind boggling to me.
The same folks who told us that Hillary was going to win in a landslide are telling you Biden is going to win handsomely. The same folks who backed Trump as a huge dawg are saying he's going to cruise to an electoral victory.
If coronavirus wasn't a thing Trump would beat biden in an actual landslide. All you need to do is look at historical numbers for incumbents with unemployment below 4%. Mr @kevinolearytv alerted me to those #'s a while ago now.
Obviously, Covid-19 has changed everything.
What you need to consider is the mentality Trump supporters have.
What you need to consider is the mentality Trump supporters have.
Trump supporters generally downplay the severity of Covid. They rail against (lefty) leaders who enforce shutdowns and have forced everyone to change their way of life.
Now, those people show up in polls. Polls are why Trump is a large dawg and Biden backers are laying heavy juice. The key here is who isn't showing up in polls.
Trump refers to them as the "silent majority." They're ashamed of voting for Trump. This is an educated guess, but I think a fair amount of them are white women. They aren't low on the socio economic ladder, meaning they can make time to vote on election day.
I'm speaking to you on Twitter. You're viewing this shit on Twitter.
I cannot stress this enough: Twitter is not indicative of the real world, WHATSOEVER.
I cannot stress this enough: Twitter is not indicative of the real world, WHATSOEVER.
An overwhelming majority of voters are over the age 40. Anyone who tries to tell you differently is full of shit. FULL of shit. That tweet that's anti Trump that got 300k likes? Wayyyy less than half of those likers will vote. I promise you, this is the way things are.
Trump is different. He is not a politician. Yes, he's a member of "the swamp," but he is not a politician. Before office and in office he's done things no other person running for political office could get away with. It's uncanny, and I myself cannot explain it.
Downplaying covid for months and then getting it himself? Should be pretty damning, right? No. Not for Trump.
The best and most extreme example of this is the "pussy tapes" coming to light. I don't remember the exact article or who authored it, but there's a piece out there explaining his reaction to that leak, and jesus fuck, it's low key inspiring. He was never phased.
I'm a bad gambler. Do I consistently make bad picks? No. Money management is my issue. I'll get drunk and decide "fuck it, putting the entire account on one wager." Long term it's a tremendous way to lose.
Trump at +150 is a tremendous bet. Wouldn't touch at anything lower than +140/135. +150 is crazy. Am seriously considering making my first max bet.
I will never forget election day, 2016. I had a very conservative floor mate who was technically my first "friend" at @northerniowa. I saw him in the hallway and asked him who he thought was going to win. Confidently, he told me Trump.
I dead ass laughed in his face.
I dead ass laughed in his face.
He didn't take offense (I would've, he's a better person than I) and casually explained to me why he thought it would play out the way it actually ended up playing out.
The next day I sought him out and apologized. Unrelated but I believe it was the last time we ever talked
The next day I sought him out and apologized. Unrelated but I believe it was the last time we ever talked
A mini, extended version of 2016 will play out come November. No candidate will concede (unless it's a landslide one way or the other, a scenario I just can't see right now) and the Supreme Court will ultimately decide, probably 2 and a half ish weeks after election day.
ACB is going to be confirmed before the election and she will have 1/9th of the decision(s) making power that decides the election. It probably won't *actually* be as dramatic as Bush vs Gore, but due to ACB's recent confirmation and the present day tendencies of the media,.....
It will be presented as 10x more dramatic as Bush vs Gore. In turn this will cause more division & angst between the parties and the American people as a whole.
Trump's ensuing 4 years will be dramatic on the surface with nothing getting done legislation wise. He'll be a hell of a lame duck. The Dems will win in 2024. End of thread.
P.S.-if I'm 100% spot on in my predictions, I'm pinning this thread and demanding a job at @newyorkpost
P.S.-if I'm 100% spot on in my predictions, I'm pinning this thread and demanding a job at @newyorkpost
