Time for a little breakdown on Florida mail and early voting numbers, if you're into that.

First, here is a .gif of the first 4,771,956 votes cast here including when and where voters have been voting.

Breaks down like this:

DEM: 2,110,366
GOP: 1,682,849
N/3/I: 978,741

Now the obvious.

@FlaDems's being up by 427,517 votes right now is still so shocking and unprecedented. It's just never worked like this here. In 2016, this far from Election Day, Republicans were up by 15,280 after 2,870,211 votes.

I'll let you do the math on that...

Now we know EXACTLY how many votes are left because, unfortunately, we don't have same day (or even close to same day) voter registration.

Here are the remaining voters:

DEM: 3,192,888
GOP: 3,486,163
N/3/I: 2,990,862

There is very good reason to believe Republicans will match their 2016 turnout, which was 81.2% (my guess is 82.6%). Democratic turnout in 2016 was 74.4%.

That's a GOP +6.8 gap.

2016 in 2020 registration numbers would put GOP turnout up 251,614 voters when polls close.

So you know what's super, insanely important for @FlaDems? You guessed it, turnout.

Fortunately (unfortunately), Democrats have a good deal more voters who sat out in 2016 than Republicans.

So, what are those people doing this year?

Good question...

Of the 1,608,493 Democrats who have already voted early by mail or in-person, 367,750 (23%) of them didn't (or weren't eligible to) vote in Florida in 2016.

That's a large number.

For Republicans, it's 196,263 (19%).

But there's an even larger number...

New NPA (no party affiliation) and other party voters are turning out like crazy. 33% of them didn't vote in 2016.

And we have good reason (that I can only vaguely share— sorry) that many of those voters seem like @JoeBiden voters.

Now you may be hearing from Republicans that Democrats are just "cannibalizing" our early or Election Day voters.

Well, both sides are to a degree. I'm also guilty of vote method shifting because... COVID.

It actually looks like this:

DEM: 39.6%
GOP: 27.7%

The new GOP talking point has been about "super voters." And it's true, Republicans have more.

Different consultants use different metrics, but here's how many voters are left we almost KNOW will vote:

DEM: 1,634,747
GOP: 2,195,716
N/3/I: 892,655

Might sound scary, but...

If nothing changes but super voters, Republicans would end up with a 133,432 registration advantage.

Which brings us back to the *new* voters.

Right now its DEM +171,487.

If @FlaDems keep turning out these new voters, Dems will end up dead even or up by Election Night.

If that happens, @JoeBiden wins Florida.

Why?

Because we (think we) know he's winning NPAs right now. Our most conservative model has him +3%.

Now what should you do with this information? Figure out a way to keep turning out new Democrats. And keep persuasion conversations going with NPA voters.

(None of that happens on Twitter)

Now, let's keep winning.
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