What will the 2020 elections mean for energy? Wood Mackenzie analysts have been assessing the implications for everything from offshore oil to EV sales. We've published a summary of their top ten conclusions: https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/what-will-the-2020-elections-mean-for-us-energy/

Point 1: Although most of the coverage of Joe Biden has focused on what he has been saying about the oil industry, his platform is actually much less radical for oil and gas than it is for power

The pledge in Biden's climate plan is "banning new oil and gas leasing on public lands and waters". To a first approximation, that would have no effect at all on oil and gas production onshore. New leases are just not very important

Offshore, it would ultimately be significant, but the impact does not really show up until the 2030s. Our estimate is that with no new leasing, US offshore oil and gas production would be 7% lower in 2030, and 30% lower in 2035, compared to a world in which lease sales continue

Broadly the same is true for oil demand. We estimate that Biden's policies, including more generous tax breaks for EVs and tighter CAFE standards, would mean 60% more EVs on US roads by 2030, compared to a continuation of Trump's policies

...but that 60% increase gets you to 4 million EVs, or about 1.5% of the US car fleet. The impact on US gasoline consumption is about 150,000 barrels per day, or about 2%. The differences look bigger in the 2030s, but it takes time

Compare that to Biden's goal of having a carbon-free electricity sector by 2035. That was not originally in his climate programme, but was a recommendation from the "unity task force" of Biden and Sanders supporters, co-chaired by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and John Kerry

This year gas plants will supply about 39% of US electricity, and coal plants a further 20%. Replacing that with zero-carbon technologies within 15 years would require a colossal, and probably impossible, effort

We estimate that a zero-carbon electricity sector by 2035 would require a seven-fold increase in US wind and utility-scale solar power, as well as a massive increase in battery storage. There would probably also have to be significant investment in carbon capture in some regions

Conclusion: if Biden is elected and gets a chance to try to put his programme into action, don't look for big impacts on the oil industry, at least not at first. It is the electricity industry that he needs to change the most, and where his biggest battles will have to be fought