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Thread #1 Un: My Thoughts on the US 2020 Presidential Elections
I'll cover candidates, policies, and possible permutations.
This is my personal opinion and perspective from info gathered.
Feel free to challenge, correct, and/or add your views in! Love to hear diff POVs.
I'll cover candidates, policies, and possible permutations.
This is my personal opinion and perspective from info gathered.
Feel free to challenge, correct, and/or add your views in! Love to hear diff POVs.
First off - Trump (aka "omg Drumfph!!1" or "45" or "
Man" in some circles)
What I like: Foreign policy (will break it down later), economy* (or is it just the stock market
), calling it out media BS, breaking Republican orthodoxies wrt economics/criminal justice/healthcare
Man" in some circles)What I like: Foreign policy (will break it down later), economy* (or is it just the stock market
), calling it out media BS, breaking Republican orthodoxies wrt economics/criminal justice/healthcare
What I don't like: Appalling rhetoric for the leader of the greatest nation in the world, unnecessary dog-whistling of minorities, too nice to RW radicals, aura of unreliability wrt international relations, too strict stances on H1B1/immigration in general, nepotism/shady biz
As you can see Trump's on-ground policy isn't something too bad in my opinion and the FP is leaps and bounds ahead of Obama. But his demeanor is horrible and unfit for the US President, possible knock-on effects wrt foreign relationships.
Enough to make me vote for him?
No.
Enough to make me vote for him?
No.
Next up - Biden (aka Sleepy Joe! Hidin' Biden! or "Listen here you lying horse-faced pony soldier...") 
What I Like: Actionable leftward shifts in healthcare & education, a real uniting voice/presidential demeanor, right direction in climate change**(a tad overreach tho)
What I Like: Actionable leftward shifts in healthcare & education, a real uniting voice/presidential demeanor, right direction in climate change**(a tad overreach tho)
What I Don't Like: Limp FP stances especially with regards to China, corruption, sometimes too easy on his crazies too (Antifa), possible trojan horse for radicals (career politician so he blows with the winds), inconsistent incoherence over the days is really scary for a US Prez
Let's dive deeper into a few select issues.
WARNING
WARNING
Encyclopedia Geopolitica de Los Candiditos - FOREIGN POLICY
One of my most passionate subjects. Check out my magnum opus series on the Saudi-Iran conflict linked below:
https://theemissary.co/a-tale-of-oil-and-fire/
Anyways, let's dive in!
One of my most passionate subjects. Check out my magnum opus series on the Saudi-Iran conflict linked below:
https://theemissary.co/a-tale-of-oil-and-fire/
Anyways, let's dive in!
Why Trump's FP > Biden's?
-Trump has been the only US President in recent years to truly challenge China. Biden has been vague in his future approach to China while past Obama years don't bode well.
-Major Euro Leaders are inept & professional virtue signallers save Macron
...
-Trump has been the only US President in recent years to truly challenge China. Biden has been vague in his future approach to China while past Obama years don't bode well.
-Major Euro Leaders are inept & professional virtue signallers save Macron
...
Thereby, I don't see crying 
who can't handle new trade deals as valuable vs other relations like
-Increased ties with Arabs AND Israels (honestly Nobel prize material if Obama can get one for....existing?)
-Boosted ties with India
MAJOR piece in coming US-China conflict...
who can't handle new trade deals as valuable vs other relations like-Increased ties with Arabs AND Israels (honestly Nobel prize material if Obama can get one for....existing?)
-Boosted ties with India
MAJOR piece in coming US-China conflict...
Biden's India policy could be a similar good tone but radicals on the left whose FP is basically a Qatari blueprint inspire confidence. Not to mention Democrat allied CAIR links (see link below) https://theemissary.co/the-shadow-sultanate-qatar/
The world is bifurcating. Trump is running with that theme while Biden seems to really have a grey policy that could harm the US if it doesn't accept the realities of a US-China Cold Conflict.
See the below awesome convo for more: https://twitter.com/adamscrabble/status/1296114837416636419?s=20
See the below awesome convo for more: https://twitter.com/adamscrabble/status/1296114837416636419?s=20
Onto the Next One -> Guerras Culturales -> Culture Wars & the state of media, discourse, and everything in between
My main thesis of my take on Far Left vs Far Right boils down to this:
-Demographics favor far left
-Institutional & media control favor far left
-Big Tech favors far left
-Far right are rank dumbasses with no sense of finesse and dying demographics https://theemissary.co/why-the-far-left-is-more-dangerous-than-the-far-right/
-Demographics favor far left
-Institutional & media control favor far left
-Big Tech favors far left
-Far right are rank dumbasses with no sense of finesse and dying demographics https://theemissary.co/why-the-far-left-is-more-dangerous-than-the-far-right/
The censoring of the Hunter Biden story was a massive 
, whipped cream, & double 
fudge on top of the sundae of censorship that we've seen evolve over the past few years
Paraphrasing @naval but social media has become the faucet/filter of discourse... https://twitter.com/naval/status/798216175536652288?s=20
, whipped cream, & double fudge on top of the sundae of censorship that we've seen evolve over the past few yearsParaphrasing @naval but social media has become the faucet/filter of discourse... https://twitter.com/naval/status/798216175536652288?s=20
And when they want to turn something off, it's off for everyone.
You may be fine with what's getting censored now, but what about when it's one of your opinions or Big Tech chooses a side you don't like?
Master Obi-Wan was hip.
You may be fine with what's getting censored now, but what about when it's one of your opinions or Big Tech chooses a side you don't like?
Master Obi-Wan was hip.
The Business - Arthashāstra
Both parties have basically agreed - We Got Money To Blow (but I choose where it's blown)
Both parties have basically agreed - We Got Money To Blow (but I choose where it's blown)
Wall Street is fully divorced from Main Street.
This reality is playing out across America, esp in the parts that are already hurting.
What Trump had going for him pre-COVID:
-Highest stock market ever
-Record low Black/Latino/Asian unemployment levels
-Strong econ overall
This reality is playing out across America, esp in the parts that are already hurting.
What Trump had going for him pre-COVID:
-Highest stock market ever
-Record low Black/Latino/Asian unemployment levels
-Strong econ overall
Now COVID happens (not good performance by Trump but other factors too)
The econ goes kaputz, meanwhile megacorps are raking it in while small biz collapses.
Few things:
-Trump did a more "socialist" bailout than Obama which was a HUGE plus for people. https://fortune.com/2020/03/25/trump-senate-trillion-rescue-deal-cash-handouts-stock-buyback-ban/
The econ goes kaputz, meanwhile megacorps are raking it in while small biz collapses.
Few things:
-Trump did a more "socialist" bailout than Obama which was a HUGE plus for people. https://fortune.com/2020/03/25/trump-senate-trillion-rescue-deal-cash-handouts-stock-buyback-ban/
-The Fed has gone full MMT. As investors learned: DFFF (see link). This has consequences for future policy where Green New Deal folks will clamor on about infinite money possibilities (they have a point).Deficit hawks BTFO
-Yet structural probs remain... https://highvol.substack.com/p/dont-fight-the-fed
-Yet structural probs remain... https://highvol.substack.com/p/dont-fight-the-fed
Where Biden comes in is that economics wise - his views are fairly popular wrt healthcare/education. I think once we are out of the danger zone of uncertainty we are in, people will warm even more to his other policies addressing inequality.
LT inequality = instability
LT inequality = instability
Possible solutions:
-Expansion of public healthcare/subsidized public university
-Returning manuf industry to the US/indigenous supply chains thereby boosting wages via market
-More small biz recovery/tax breaks (this is a bit more Republican)
Far out but:
-UBI
-Tax reform
-Expansion of public healthcare/subsidized public university
-Returning manuf industry to the US/indigenous supply chains thereby boosting wages via market
-More small biz recovery/tax breaks (this is a bit more Republican)
Far out but
:-UBI
-Tax reform
UBI has mixed results: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/2/19/21112570/universal-basic-income-ubi-map
Wealth tax didn't work out in Europe. VAT tax has-ish? (Adam has alt views- https://twitter.com/adamscrabble/status/1187859077831036929)
But then again, if the Fed can print infinitely....why do we need taxes?
The US Dollar works in mysterious ways...
Wealth tax didn't work out in Europe. VAT tax has-ish? (Adam has alt views- https://twitter.com/adamscrabble/status/1187859077831036929)
But then again, if the Fed can print infinitely....why do we need taxes?
The US Dollar works in mysterious ways...
Rapid Fire Round 
Everything else and miscellaneous...
Everything else and miscellaneous...
Supreme Court:
-Judge Amy Coney Barrett will go through via political brute force. No change to Roe v Wade.
-Biden and Dems may try to pack the courts if they can (it's just politics).
Crim Jus:
-Police Reform incoming in some form https://www.axios.com/police-reform-george-floyd-protest-2150b2dd-a6dc-4a0c-a1fb-62c2e999a03a.html
-Judge Amy Coney Barrett will go through via political brute force. No change to Roe v Wade.
-Biden and Dems may try to pack the courts if they can (it's just politics).
Crim Jus:
-Police Reform incoming in some form https://www.axios.com/police-reform-george-floyd-protest-2150b2dd-a6dc-4a0c-a1fb-62c2e999a03a.html
Weird - Twitter stopped by tweetstorm midway #BIGTECH!!!!
Jk but let's add on the last few tweets
Violence:
-Mass protests/riots post-Trump victory
-Biden will clamp down on them post his victory with Dem money withdrawn. Independent vigilantes will try (Snakes in your yard..)
Jk but let's add on the last few tweets
Violence:
-Mass protests/riots post-Trump victory
-Biden will clamp down on them post his victory with Dem money withdrawn. Independent vigilantes will try (Snakes in your yard..)
US 
:
-The Fed and our Foreign Policy will seek to keep it as reserve status.
-Oil relationship with Gulf Arabs tapering off with shale oil boom and renewables but still some geopolitical potential, esp with India/Israel joining in.
-Crypto use will grow either way
:-The Fed and our Foreign Policy will seek to keep it as reserve status.
-Oil relationship with Gulf Arabs tapering off with shale oil boom and renewables but still some geopolitical potential, esp with India/Israel joining in.
-Crypto use will grow either way
Wall Street:
-Trump=megaboom
-Biden=little dip then boom
-Both sides have no appetite for true economic change which will hurt Wall Street elites and now Big Tech entrenched with them
Big Tech:
-Cons very mad, will try to clamp down
-Lobby $ prevents
-Need Teddy Roosevelt...
-Trump=megaboom
-Biden=little dip then boom
-Both sides have no appetite for true economic change which will hurt Wall Street elites and now Big Tech entrenched with them
Big Tech:
-Cons very mad, will try to clamp down
-Lobby $ prevents
-Need Teddy Roosevelt...
-will continue it's dominance till that new TR + public outcry overturns it (big if)
-Will be used as weaponry vs China in new economic cold war
-Data is the new oil (Shouts out $PLTR)
-Will be used as weaponry vs China in new economic cold war
-Data is the new oil (Shouts out $PLTR)
Overall:
Polls point to big Biden victory but I think @amlivemon makes a great case of the opposite and am leaning towards his take:
Trump victory. Maybe not as much as this prediction, but general direction https://twitter.com/amlivemon/status/1319626415491469321?s=20
Polls point to big Biden victory but I think @amlivemon makes a great case of the opposite and am leaning towards his take:
Trump victory. Maybe not as much as this prediction, but general direction https://twitter.com/amlivemon/status/1319626415491469321?s=20
Another pointer towards that direction: https://twitter.com/TheEmissaryCo/status/1318602620383252482?s=20
Tentatively wrapping this one up. My biases laid out earlier last year:
Cya next time
https://theemissary.co/an-indian-american-dilemma/
Cya next time
https://theemissary.co/an-indian-american-dilemma/
