THREAD: where we are with covid in UK, particularly England, right now ... inc schools and circuit breaks... based on my @IndependentSage briefing today (which you can watch here if you want )

Confirmed UK cases still going steadily up - doubling every 2 weeks or so - faster end of Sept and bit slower last 2 weeks. Of course reliant on testing so take with pinch of salt.

Cases continuing to increase in England, NI and Wales. 2 weeks into central belt restirction in Scotland and we're seeing a flattening. Remember impact on cases takes at least a week to show in case numbers. Keep an eye on NI next week and Wales in two weeks...

English regions still show NE, NW & Yorks with highest cases but some sign of slowing growth. But growth nonetheless. ONS social survey reports people going out less - will be helping to slow growth.

Removing highest three regions shows just how fast the rest of country is increasing - lower case numbers there are *not* cause for complacency! If growth does not stop, things will be significantly worse there in a few weeks.

What age are new cases? @ONS infection survey is good for this (since doesn't rely on testing behaviour or having symptoms, important cos kids much less likely to show symptoms). V. interesting data but note last data point is more uncertain. So what does it show?

Highest cases in last 2 school years & young adults - growing but growth slowing. Infection in secondary school pupils under 16 is coming down while primary school kids are shooting up! Not sure why, & wait for next week to confirm But top 3 age groups *all* include school yrs.

The @ONS social survey shows that parents of dependent kids are worried about kids getting covid, mental health impact & time off school. 8% said their child had been sent home due to outbreak and of remainder 41% said their school had an outbreak!

The Dept for Education said 46% of state secondary schools had one or more pupils self-isolating but only 16% of primary. Overall 4% (400K kids!) are off due to covid outbreaks. Attendance is much lower in hard hit cities. Covid in schools is a growing problem...

so what about hospital admissions? They are going up still - and close to 2 week doubling but perhaps slowing a bit (good). But almost back at March 23rd levels (bad).

again lots of regional variation with v high admissions in the North (at London 23rd March levels) and much lower elsewhere... but remove the North and you can see all regions have increasing admissions

Deaths will follow admissions... ONS registered deaths (gold standard but lagged) show steady 2 week doubling in the 8 weeks to 16th October. Same pattern in daily English deaths within 28 days of +ve test (more recent data)

Takes about 4 weeks from infection to death. So almost all people to die in next 4 weeks from covid, already infected. Given rough 2 wk doubling of cases & admissions, expect deaths to follow too (perhaps slowed a bit). Awful. BUT what we do now CAN change last 2 weeks of Nov.

This just projecting exponential growth onto current confirmed cases in England over next 8 weeks. Assuming tiers reduce R to 1.1, this will slow growth but it is still growing. Even if R goes to 1, that will maintain high persistent level. Few believe they will bring R below 1.

A 2 week circuit break now could reduce R to 0.65 (halving every 8 days) and dramatically reduce cases starting a week after the circuit break starts. Hosp adms will fall from 2 weeks after that and deaths from 4 weeks later. We could "reset", particularly in North & schools

A circuit breaker in 2 weeks or 4 weeks would still work but in the meantime there would be tens of thousands new infections and thousand hospitalisations and deaths. and might need to go for longer to get cases low enough. And would miss half term.

In those 2 weeks + 4 more weeks of restrictions sufficient to bring R below 1 but schools open, we *could* rebuild test and trace & other public health infrastructure, such as improved ventilation. Read our detailed blueprint! https://www.independentsage.org/blueprint-for-rebuilding-find-test-trace-isolate-and-support/

So... next few weeks will be crucial in assessing effectiveness of circuit breaks in NI & Wales, Scotland's new tiers and English tiers. A circuit break in England right now is best bet to rapidly reduce cases and will save thousands of lives by mid-December. /END

PS the moral is that exponential decay is our friend just as much as exponential growth is our enemy