I haven't written up why I think so, but I am a dissenter on this.
Main reason: Cults of personality don't transfer well.
Also: The antics driven by Trump's emotional illnesses were crucial to his appeal to a base that demographically gets smaller every year.
/1 https://twitter.com/markzbarabak/status/1319673666896969728
The GOP will get smaller and harder-edged and will move further right. They might still cobble together Electoral College wins (even now!) But "Trumpism" didn't mean anything but "Trump's TV show." You can't always just replace Darren with a new Darren. /2
And one more thing: Trump being a "kingmaker" means Trump accepting that he is not a king. His personality is not the type to step aside and start supporting someone younger and more accomplished. It's not how he's built. In fact...
/3
...it is possible that Trump becomes a *liability* for the next GOP candidate, who might want to campaign to win back suburbs and niche demos like "women" and "not-crazy-people" without Trump having nutball rallies on OAN.
/4
In sum, Libya is a land of contrasts, and it's way too early to think about this. No sleep till Biden. 2024 will take care of itself. We'll get to that later. /5x
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