I haven& #39;t written up why I think so, but I am a dissenter on this.
Main reason: Cults of personality don& #39;t transfer well.
Also: The antics driven by Trump& #39;s emotional illnesses were crucial to his appeal to a base that demographically gets smaller every year.
/1 https://twitter.com/markzbarabak/status/1319673666896969728">https://twitter.com/markzbara...

The GOP will get smaller and harder-edged and will move further right. They might still cobble together Electoral College wins (even now!) But "Trumpism" didn& #39;t mean anything but "Trump& #39;s TV show." You can& #39;t always just replace Darren with a new Darren. /2

And one more thing: Trump being a "kingmaker" means Trump accepting that he is not a king. His personality is not the type to step aside and start supporting someone younger and more accomplished. It& #39;s not how he& #39;s built. In fact...
/3

...it is possible that Trump becomes a *liability* for the next GOP candidate, who might want to campaign to win back suburbs and niche demos like "women" and "not-crazy-people" without Trump having nutball rallies on OAN.
/4

In sum, Libya is a land of contrasts, and it& #39;s way too early to think about this. No sleep till Biden. 2024 will take care of itself. We& #39;ll get to that later. /5x