Speaking at the Valdai Club, Putin gave the most definitive statement yet on the possibility for a Russia-China military alliance. He said such an “alliance is not on the agenda now.” Still, it is “conceivable” and “cannot be ruled out in principle.”/1 http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/64261

This is not the first time Putin hints at the possibility of Russia and China forming a full-blown political-military alliance. He has been occasionally using the A-word with regard to China since 2014. /2

In October 2014, meeting with Premier Li Keqiang, Putin referred to the two countries as ‘natural partners and allies.’ In October 2019, he called Russia-China ties ‘an allied relationship in the full sense of a multifaceted strategic partnership.’/3

Putin’s statement yesterday is so far the most explicit expression of Moscow’s intention to consider entering an alliance with China in response to the perceived threat from the US. /4

Notably, the question to Putin about the possibility of a Russia-China alliance came from Yan Xuetong, who is dean of Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University. It’s unlikely Yan would have asked such a question without a nod from Beijing. /5

Moscow and Beijing are clearly signaling to Washington they are prepared for a counter-US alliance. The question is, if this readiness is real or bluff. Most likely, it’s a mix of both at the moment. /6

Tellingly, Putin’s remark on the prospects for a Russia-China alliance was accompanied by his comments on the “high level of bilateral interaction achieved in military technology.” /7

Putin stressed that Russia and China are "exchanging" advanced defense technology, although, from Putin’s, words, it’s not quite clear whether it is mutual exchange or just Russia transfering defense tech to China. /8

Finally, in his comments on Russia-China relations, Putin mentioned the US plans to deploy intermediate-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific, warning that Russia will respond to such a deployment. /9

Given that possible US missiles in the Pacific will mainly target China, Russia’s response to them, if it materializes, will be a de facto alliance move by Moscow. 10/10