Starting to hear murmurs of lockdowns in #Colombo. Thing is, most of us live in an echo chamber, and reality is often far more complex than we imagine. I took 10 minutes of my time to see what the data can tell us. Thread

I don't need to tell you that Sri Lanka doesn't have the fiscal headroom to borrow to fund massive job support schemes, so won't be talking about that. Instead...

Instead, let's start with household income data from @CBSL . As you can see, Sri Lankan household don't really have a lot of savings. The estate sector has no savings at all.

Can we all keep the economy running with a lockdown in place? Can everybody work from home? Christmas season is the busiest season for many businesses, with their employees looking forward to the bonus.

So, what does the data tell us?

Only 11% of Sri Lanka's workforce can comfortably work from home, while more than half will need to be out and about to do their jobs. I understand that the way these categories are defined, there can be some ambiguity, but I couldn't come across a better measure

So what can we do instead?
As bitter a pill it is to swallow, it is up to you and me to take all necessary precautions and stay safe till a vaccine is found. The government must also take steps to ramp up hospital capacity (beds, medicines etc.).
And one more thing...

Sri Lanka must talk to India to acquire supplies of a vaccine as an when it comes out. India is at the heart of the planet's search for a vaccine, and a vaccine that can treat most mild cases is already in the third phase of trials.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/20/india-at-heart-of-global-efforts-to-produce-covid-vaccine https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/coronavirus-vaccine-approval-cdsco-draft-guidelines-explained-6606147/