Countries without government trust have performed badly in #COVID19, even when you account for differences in population age and size, and the timing of the pandemic
New analysis in @ForeignAffairs via @samckiernan, Sawyer Crosby @IHME_UW, and me 1/
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-23/coronavirus-fighting-requires-trust
New analysis in @ForeignAffairs via @samckiernan, Sawyer Crosby @IHME_UW, and me 1/
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-23/coronavirus-fighting-requires-trust
“Government exists to protect us from each other,” Reagan once said, but goes “beyond its limits . . . in deciding to protect us from ourselves”
When applied to pandemics, Reagan was wrong & so are policymakers, in esp. in US, who have adopted this view https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-23/coronavirus-fighting-requires-trust
When applied to pandemics, Reagan was wrong & so are policymakers, in esp. in US, who have adopted this view https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-23/coronavirus-fighting-requires-trust
Confronted w/novel contagious virus, for which there's no effective treatment & no preexisting immunity, the only way to protect citizens from one another is by convincing them to protect themselves
Esp. in free societies that depends on trust between government and its people
Esp. in free societies that depends on trust between government and its people
We saw this Ebola in West Africa 4/ https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1409859
And with Ebola in the DRC 5/ https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(19)30063-5/fulltext#seccestitle140
And with H1N1 & SARS too 6/
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-23/coronavirus-fighting-requires-trust
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-23/coronavirus-fighting-requires-trust
Government trust assumes an outsize role when threat is new to a population that does not already perceive itself as vulnerable 7/
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-23/coronavirus-fighting-requires-trust
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-23/coronavirus-fighting-requires-trust
In #COVID19, many of successful nations have direct experience with past coronavirus outbreaks, such as SARS or MERS, or recent history high level of endemic infectious disease
An already high risk perception relies less on government to convey risk 8/ https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-23/coronavirus-fighting-requires-trust
An already high risk perception relies less on government to convey risk 8/ https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-23/coronavirus-fighting-requires-trust
For everyone else, public trust an the honest, full appraisal of risk from government & its leaders clearly matters 9/
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-23/coronavirus-fighting-requires-trust
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-23/coronavirus-fighting-requires-trust
The good news is that can be earned in crisis
A government builds & maintains that trust by issuing science-based advice and timely, honest assessment of risk
Again, we saw with Ebola 10/
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-23/coronavirus-fighting-requires-trust
A government builds & maintains that trust by issuing science-based advice and timely, honest assessment of risk
Again, we saw with Ebola 10/
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-23/coronavirus-fighting-requires-trust
The US government has long known this, which is why this statement existed in USG 2006 pandemic plan 11/
https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/homeland/pandemic-influenza-implementation.html
https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/homeland/pandemic-influenza-implementation.html
Past surveys had found most trusted sources of information in a health crisis were @CDCgov officials, followed by state and local public health officials, with elected officials typically least trusted 12/
https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/bsp.2012.0048
https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/bsp.2012.0048
And, yet, White House kept @CDCgov from briefing the public, took away its responsibilities related to data, and watered down its recommendations 13/ https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-the-fall-of-the-cdc
The result, I am very sad to say, speak for themselves 15/15
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-23/coronavirus-fighting-requires-trust
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-23/coronavirus-fighting-requires-trust