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THREAD 1/7 On the Armenian-Azerbaijani front in the Nagorno-Karabakh region,Azerbaijani forces, ignoring a Russian-sponsored ceasefire,seized significant areas previously controlled by Armenians,cutting off Karabakh fr the Iranian border & advancing north. https://caucasus.liveuamap.com/en/2020/23-october-azerbaijani-ministry-of-defense-heavy-clashes">https://caucasus.liveuamap.com/en/2020/2...
2. In this situation, the Armenian authorities,apart fr military activities, are making intensive diplomatic efforts to put pressure on Azerbaijan. Presid Sarkissyan held meetings in the EU & NATO & France, foreign min. of both states visiting (separately) Washington DC today.
3. PM Pashinyan began to solicit the sending of 
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇷🇺" title="Flagge von Russland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Russland"> peacekeepers to Karabakh. N.b. evolution of his position on this: fr considering the deployment of Russian troops unnecessary (Sep 30) by considering such an option (Oct 3) to its public support (Oct 22). https://www.interfax.ru/world/733749 ">https://www.interfax.ru/world/733...
4. Meanwhile, Russia is reluctant to engage more directly (de facto in defence of the Armenians). Minister Lavrov emphasized (Oct 14) that sending Russian "military observers" to the conflict area was possible only with the consent of both sides. President Putin said yesterday..
5. that "Armenia and Azerbaijan are equal partners for Russia". Lamenting the victims of the conflict, he said that the situation in which a significant part of Azerbaijan territory was lost by him could not last forever. https://www.interfax.ru/world/733760 ">https://www.interfax.ru/world/733...
6. Today MFA https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇷🇺" title="Flagge von Russland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Russland"> said there are no reasons to use Collective Security Treaty Organization& #39;s mechanisms in Karabakh conflict. https://ria.ru/20201023/karabakh-1581173871.html">https://ria.ru/20201023/...
7. This effectively means Russia& #39;s "neutrality"(possibly except for arms transfers to Armenia) at least until Armenia& #39;s territory is under serious attack. In such a circumstance one should not expect effective ceasefire until/if Azerbeijan& #39;s offensive in Karabakh is stalled. END
P.S. Moscow is aware that the "lost war" in Karabakh could lead to another regime change in Armenia. However Russia seems to welcome such a scenario. The Kremlin has never trusted Pashinyan, who came to power in 2018 as a result of a revolution, with a partly pro-European agenda.
