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Harris County's 2.7 million voters now have only one secure ballot drop box instead of 12. This is a minor inconvenience for drivers but represents a poll tax on public transit users. Maps show travel time to a drop box on transit before and after the change. #TXVotes
Households in poverty and without cars (those who need transit most) see their time to the nearest drop box increase from 43 to 73 minutes--a 70% change! That extra time makes it far less likely that a transit user will choose to drop their ballot at the remaining location.
Drivers see their travel times double, but from a much smaller base. Average travel times increase from 14 to 28 minutes. This is still a problem. But the worst case for drivers is still better than the best case for transit users.
There are ~130,000 voting-age people in poverty living in households without cars in Harris. This group is certainly at high risk of Covid-19 complications. Removing drop boxes forces them to decide between preserving their health and exercising their right to vote.
To vote without a nearby secure drop box, this group will have to endure longer transit trips (and increased potential exposure) to reach the one remaining box. They can also vote in person on election day. Of course, this also carries an elevated risk.
I know that folks can still drop their ballot in any USPS box. But it seems reasonable given *everything going on* that they'd want to drop it in a location where they know for sure that it will be counted.
This is a preliminary analysis. I used the Google Maps Directions API to generate travel times from population-weighted tract centroids to the nearest drop off location. Demographics are from the Census Transportation Planning Package. Figures are population-weighted means.
We'll do some more highly resolved calculations using block groups and additional departure times, but the Google-generated times are actually pretty robust. Thanks to Dana Rowangould at Univ. Vermont for helping work through these ideas.
Note that the 2018 US Senate election in TX was decided by ~200,000 votes. This year it could be closer. If even a handful of these folks are disenfranchised it could swing the election one way or the other.
