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I wrote a thing for on Biden's climate plan. http://gwagner.com/risky-business-biden-plan
It's good. The plan, that is.
What I wrote is also squarely addressed at my fellow economists: please don't make this harder than it is.
And yes, this here is climate policy. 1/n
It's good. The plan, that is.
What I wrote is also squarely addressed at my fellow economists: please don't make this harder than it is.
And yes, this here is climate policy. 1/n
Biden's climate plan is comprehensive. In fact, it's several plans. There's the bit around 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035, $2 investments over 4 years. It also puts environmental justice front and center, climate is part of foreign policy (not just Paris), gov reform. 2/
As is told @LouiseB_NY last night for her debate reprise, Biden's plan is a win-win-win-win: climate, jobs, justice, growth (and not necessarily in this order). https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-presidential-debate-biden-trump-windmill-fracking-b1242172.html 3/
Now, economists generally don't know what to do with that.
It goes back to Mundell (1968), or further to Tinbergen (1952) — and yes, both got the Sveriges Riksbank Prize something something Nobel for their troubles.
In short: one policy goal, one policy instrument! 4/
It goes back to Mundell (1968), or further to Tinbergen (1952) — and yes, both got the Sveriges Riksbank Prize something something Nobel for their troubles.
In short: one policy goal, one policy instrument! 4/
It's also built into our standard macro economy models.
The standard assumption: the economy is humming along on its Panglossian path, so every climate policy must be bad for jobs & growth.
The result: it's jobs/growth versus the environment. It can't possibly be both. 5/
The standard assumption: the economy is humming along on its Panglossian path, so every climate policy must be bad for jobs & growth.
The result: it's jobs/growth versus the environment. It can't possibly be both. 5/
That can't be real, you say.
Economics must have moved on from that by now, you say.
Well, I'd like to think so. But, no, not really. Not all of us apparently. https://twitter.com/GernotWagner/status/1319600474300076032
6/
Economics must have moved on from that by now, you say.
Well, I'd like to think so. But, no, not really. Not all of us apparently. https://twitter.com/GernotWagner/status/1319600474300076032
6/
Biden's win-win-win-win strategy isn't something we economists do as a species. It can't be. It mustn't be.
This smells vaguely like a free lunch, which can't possibly exist. Plenty of econ jokes say so. 7/
This smells vaguely like a free lunch, which can't possibly exist. Plenty of econ jokes say so. 7/
Then, of course, there's politics.
The Obama-era Waxman-Markey bill of yore narrowly passed the House and then fizzled in the Senate for lots of reasons (fully disclosure: I was at @EnvDefenseFund at the time, trying to make it happen). Lots of post mortems on that one. 8/
The Obama-era Waxman-Markey bill of yore narrowly passed the House and then fizzled in the Senate for lots of reasons (fully disclosure: I was at @EnvDefenseFund at the time, trying to make it happen). Lots of post mortems on that one. 8/
@mmildenberger's "Carbon Captured" provides an apt analysis there and shows how important it is to have labor unions support climate policy: https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/carbon-captured
And yes, Labor supports Biden's climate plan. 9/
And yes, Labor supports Biden's climate plan. 9/
Great new @DCullenward & David Victor book "Making Climate Policy Work" takes this to a new level and looks to climate policies past and present to help guide future ones: https://politybooks.com/bookdetail/?isbn=9781509541799
Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/dcullenward/status/1318334120846532608 10/
Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/dcullenward/status/1318334120846532608 10/
Crucially, @DCullenward & Victor look to pricing carbon as one pillar of comprehensive climate policy. It's an important one, but it can't be the singular focus, especially if it means trading away other, more comprehensive policies.
e.g. http://gwagner.com/risky-climate-exxon-tax 11/
e.g. http://gwagner.com/risky-climate-exxon-tax 11/
Yes, the fact that @LisaMurkowski is making the rounds with climate champion @SenWhitehouse, joining economists Larry Goulder & @CharlesKolstad to talk carbon pricing is *GREAT*: http://eenews.net/eedaily/stories/1063716797 @nick_sobczyk 12/
Meanwhile, the fact that carbon pricing isn't explicitly in Biden's climate plan is, well, politics.
Might we still end up with a climate bill that does include carbon pricing? Who knows.
Largely depends who you ask. 13/
Might we still end up with a climate bill that does include carbon pricing? Who knows.
Largely depends who you ask. 13/
E.g. lots of talk of budget reconciliation, parliamentary procedures, etc at this great @RFF event earlier this week, ft. @NatKeohane, @JosephMajkut, @AdeleCMorris & @DrMarcHafstead. Worth a look: http://rff.org/events/rff-live/future-carbon-pricing-2020-and-beyond/ 14/
Some different views at this "carbon pricing & innovation in a world of political constraints" shindig earlier http://wagner.nyu.edu/carbonpricingworkshop (too many folks to tag, co-organized with @leahstokes & @JesseJenkins)
Lots more to come from http://wagner.nyu.edu/SCCworkshop , w/ @noahqk 15/
Lots more to come from http://wagner.nyu.edu/SCCworkshop , w/ @noahqk 15/
Regardless of the details, of course, none of this will happen, unless Biden actually gets a chance to implement his climate plan(s).
The quadruple win-win-win-win there matters. A lot. 16/
The quadruple win-win-win-win there matters. A lot. 16/
Enviros support him because of CO₂ cuts.
Labor because of jobs.
Justice groups because the plans put justice front and center.
And yes, @GoldmanSachs says Biden's climate plans grow the economy.
Win-win-win-win.
My @business/ @climate column: http://gwagner.com/risky-business-biden-plan
Labor because of jobs.
Justice groups because the plans put justice front and center.
And yes, @GoldmanSachs says Biden's climate plans grow the economy.
Win-win-win-win.
My @business/ @climate column: http://gwagner.com/risky-business-biden-plan
PS: I meant to work this one into the thread: https://twitter.com/marclacey/status/1319604944551464960?s=20 If your climate plan doesn't address this, it's not a plan. Biden's does.
PPS: I also meant to proofread things before sending that very first tweet. Next time.
PPS: I also meant to proofread things before sending that very first tweet. Next time.
