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I wrote a thing for on Biden& #39;s climate plan. http://gwagner.com/risky-business-biden-plan
It& #39;s">https://gwagner.com/risky-bus... good. The plan, that is.
What I wrote is also squarely addressed at my fellow economists: please don& #39;t make this harder than it is.
And yes, this here is climate policy. 1/n
It& #39;s">https://gwagner.com/risky-bus... good. The plan, that is.
What I wrote is also squarely addressed at my fellow economists: please don& #39;t make this harder than it is.
And yes, this here is climate policy. 1/n
Biden& #39;s climate plan is comprehensive. In fact, it& #39;s several plans. There& #39;s the bit around 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035, $2 investments over 4 years. It also puts environmental justice front and center, climate is part of foreign policy (not just Paris), gov reform. 2/
As is told @LouiseB_NY last night for her debate reprise, Biden& #39;s plan is a win-win-win-win: climate, jobs, justice, growth (and not necessarily in this order). https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-presidential-debate-biden-trump-windmill-fracking-b1242172.html">https://www.independent.co.uk/environme... 3/
Now, economists generally don& #39;t know what to do with that.
It goes back to Mundell (1968), or further to Tinbergen (1952) — and yes, both got the Sveriges Riksbank Prize something something Nobel for their troubles.
In short: one policy goal, one policy instrument! 4/
It goes back to Mundell (1968), or further to Tinbergen (1952) — and yes, both got the Sveriges Riksbank Prize something something Nobel for their troubles.
In short: one policy goal, one policy instrument! 4/
It& #39;s also built into our standard macro economy models.
The standard assumption: the economy is humming along on its Panglossian path, so every climate policy must be bad for jobs & growth.
The result: it& #39;s jobs/growth versus the environment. It can& #39;t possibly be both. 5/
The standard assumption: the economy is humming along on its Panglossian path, so every climate policy must be bad for jobs & growth.
The result: it& #39;s jobs/growth versus the environment. It can& #39;t possibly be both. 5/
That can& #39;t be real, you say.
Economics must have moved on from that by now, you say.
Well, I& #39;d like to think so. But, no, not really. Not all of us apparently. https://twitter.com/GernotWagner/status/1319600474300076032
6/">https://twitter.com/GernotWag...
Economics must have moved on from that by now, you say.
Well, I& #39;d like to think so. But, no, not really. Not all of us apparently. https://twitter.com/GernotWagner/status/1319600474300076032
6/">https://twitter.com/GernotWag...
Biden& #39;s win-win-win-win strategy isn& #39;t something we economists do as a species. It can& #39;t be. It mustn& #39;t be.
This smells vaguely like a free lunch, which can& #39;t possibly exist. Plenty of econ jokes say so. 7/
This smells vaguely like a free lunch, which can& #39;t possibly exist. Plenty of econ jokes say so. 7/
Then, of course, there& #39;s politics.
The Obama-era Waxman-Markey bill of yore narrowly passed the House and then fizzled in the Senate for lots of reasons (fully disclosure: I was at @EnvDefenseFund at the time, trying to make it happen). Lots of post mortems on that one. 8/
The Obama-era Waxman-Markey bill of yore narrowly passed the House and then fizzled in the Senate for lots of reasons (fully disclosure: I was at @EnvDefenseFund at the time, trying to make it happen). Lots of post mortems on that one. 8/
@mmildenberger& #39;s "Carbon Captured" provides an apt analysis there and shows how important it is to have labor unions support climate policy: https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/carbon-captured
And">https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/car... yes, Labor supports Biden& #39;s climate plan. 9/
And">https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/car... yes, Labor supports Biden& #39;s climate plan. 9/
Great new @DCullenward & David Victor book "Making Climate Policy Work" takes this to a new level and looks to climate policies past and present to help guide future ones: https://politybooks.com/bookdetail/?isbn=9781509541799
Twitter">https://politybooks.com/bookdetai... thread: https://twitter.com/dcullenward/status/1318334120846532608">https://twitter.com/dcullenwa... 10/
Twitter">https://politybooks.com/bookdetai... thread: https://twitter.com/dcullenward/status/1318334120846532608">https://twitter.com/dcullenwa... 10/
Crucially, @DCullenward & Victor look to pricing carbon as one pillar of comprehensive climate policy. It& #39;s an important one, but it can& #39;t be the singular focus, especially if it means trading away other, more comprehensive policies.
e.g. http://gwagner.com/risky-climate-exxon-tax">https://gwagner.com/risky-cli... 11/
e.g. http://gwagner.com/risky-climate-exxon-tax">https://gwagner.com/risky-cli... 11/
Yes, the fact that @LisaMurkowski is making the rounds with climate champion @SenWhitehouse, joining economists Larry Goulder & @CharlesKolstad to talk carbon pricing is *GREAT*: http://eenews.net/eedaily/stories/1063716797">https://eenews.net/eedaily/s... @nick_sobczyk 12/
Meanwhile, the fact that carbon pricing isn& #39;t explicitly in Biden& #39;s climate plan is, well, politics.
Might we still end up with a climate bill that does include carbon pricing? Who knows.
Largely depends who you ask. 13/
Might we still end up with a climate bill that does include carbon pricing? Who knows.
Largely depends who you ask. 13/
E.g. lots of talk of budget reconciliation, parliamentary procedures, etc at this great @RFF event earlier this week, ft. @NatKeohane, @JosephMajkut, @AdeleCMorris & @DrMarcHafstead. Worth a look: http://rff.org/events/rff-live/future-carbon-pricing-2020-and-beyond/">https://rff.org/events/rf... 14/
Some different views at this "carbon pricing & innovation in a world of political constraints" shindig earlier http://wagner.nyu.edu/carbonpricingworkshop">https://wagner.nyu.edu/carbonpri... (too many folks to tag, co-organized with @leahstokes & @JesseJenkins)
Lots more to come from http://wagner.nyu.edu/SCCworkshop ,">https://wagner.nyu.edu/SCCworksh... w/ @noahqk 15/
Lots more to come from http://wagner.nyu.edu/SCCworkshop ,">https://wagner.nyu.edu/SCCworksh... w/ @noahqk 15/
Regardless of the details, of course, none of this will happen, unless Biden actually gets a chance to implement his climate plan(s).
The quadruple win-win-win-win there matters. A lot. 16/
The quadruple win-win-win-win there matters. A lot. 16/
Enviros support him because of CO₂ cuts.
Labor because of jobs.
Justice groups because the plans put justice front and center.
And yes, @GoldmanSachs says Biden& #39;s climate plans grow the economy.
Win-win-win-win.
My @business/ @climate column: http://gwagner.com/risky-business-biden-plan">https://gwagner.com/risky-bus...
Labor because of jobs.
Justice groups because the plans put justice front and center.
And yes, @GoldmanSachs says Biden& #39;s climate plans grow the economy.
Win-win-win-win.
My @business/ @climate column: http://gwagner.com/risky-business-biden-plan">https://gwagner.com/risky-bus...
PS: I meant to work this one into the thread: https://twitter.com/marclacey/status/1319604944551464960?s=20">https://twitter.com/marclacey... If your climate plan doesn& #39;t address this, it& #39;s not a plan. Biden& #39;s does.
PPS: I also meant to proofread things before sending that very first tweet. Next time.
PPS: I also meant to proofread things before sending that very first tweet. Next time.
