The latest Covid figures in France are worrying – not only the jump to over 40,000 cases in one day yesterday but a sharp increase in deaths over the last week. The 2nd Wave remains far less deadly than the first but shows no signs of fading. A new thread. 1/7

The average number of Covid cases reported daily in the last 7 days was 27,051 – with a new peak of 41,622 yesterday (Thursday). Last week, it was 20,399. Earlier 7-day averages were 16,972- 12,242 - 12,838 - 10,520 - 8,630. In August it was 500. 2/7

The average number of daily deaths in the last 7 days was 155, compared to 94.5 the previous week. Earlier weeks, going backwards, were 62.7-81.7- 74.7. Still no explosion like that in March-April when deaths leaped from 0 to 1,000 a day in 3-4 weeks. BUT…3/7

Santé Publique France says new cases are spreading fast amongst older people after being disproportionately confined to the young and middle aged in the summer and September. This is pushing up the number of acute cases, which had been stable until early October. 4/7

There are 2,319 Covid cases in intensive care in Fr - a doubling in 2 weeks. The av. daily increase in IC occupation in the last week was 74.1 beds, compared to 57.3 the previous week. Almost half the “normal” IC capacity is occupied by C19 patients – far more in some areas. 5/7

Hence the spread of the curfew to new départements, including my own, Calvados, announced by the government on Thursday. There are now 46,000,000 French people under curfew – no leaving home without a good reason, 9pm to 6am – out of 66,00,000. 6/7

It remains the case that the 2md Wave has a quite different shape to the First Wave. Deaths and acute cases are accelerating but the rise remains relentless rather than exponential - so far.

Against that, winter is coming….

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