Tweet 1/8 In a warning sign for the GOP, Democrats have opened up a big lead in early voting in the 6 core battleground states, turning out more base, low-frequency & newly registered voters than Republicans

But there are 11 days to go

w/ @ZachMontellaro https://politi.co/31zCG2M ">https://politi.co/31zCG2M&q...
'Warning flare': New swing-state data shows massive Democratic early-vote lead

In a worrisome sign for Republicans, Democrats are also turning out more low-frequency and newly registered voters than the GOP.

https://politi.co/31zCG2M
2/8 Before we get into the snapshots of the states, 2 disclaimers

1) This analysis was performed for Politico by Hawkfish, a new Dem data firm & was independently reviewed by Republicans & 2 profs

2) The election ain’t over. We’re not forecasting https://politi.co/31zCG2M ">https://politi.co/31zCG2M&q...
'Warning flare': New swing-state data shows massive Democratic early-vote lead

In a worrisome sign for Republicans, Democrats are also turning out more low-frequency and newly registered voters than the GOP.

https://politi.co/31zCG2M
3/8

ARIZONA

Total ballots cast so far: 1.1m for which Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 58%. Trump: 42%

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 75k. Biden: 57% percent. Trump: 43

Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 41,000. Biden: 54%. Trump: 46% https://politi.co/31zCG2M ">https://politi.co/31zCG2M&q...
'Warning flare': New swing-state data shows massive Democratic early-vote lead

In a worrisome sign for Republicans, Democrats are also turning out more low-frequency and newly registered voters than the GOP.

https://politi.co/31zCG2M
4/8

FLORIDA

Total ballots cast: 4.2m for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 56% Trump: 44%.

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 422k. Biden: 55%. Trump: 45%

Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 174,000. Biden: 53%. Trump: 47% https://politi.co/31zCG2M ">https://politi.co/31zCG2M&q...
'Warning flare': New swing-state data shows massive Democratic early-vote lead

In a worrisome sign for Republicans, Democrats are also turning out more low-frequency and newly registered voters than the GOP.

https://politi.co/31zCG2M
5/8

MICHIGAN

Total ballots cast: 1.8 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 62%. Trump: 38%

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 139k. Biden: 63% Trump: 37%

Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 96k. Biden: 53%. Trump 47% https://politi.co/31zCG2M ">https://politi.co/31zCG2M&q...
'Warning flare': New swing-state data shows massive Democratic early-vote lead

In a worrisome sign for Republicans, Democrats are also turning out more low-frequency and newly registered voters than the GOP.

https://politi.co/31zCG2M
6/8

NORTH CAROLINA

Total ballots cast: 2.1 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 57%. Trump: 43%

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 148k. Biden: 60% Trump: 40%

Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 61k. Biden: 51%. Trump: 49% https://politi.co/31zCG2M ">https://politi.co/31zCG2M&q...
'Warning flare': New swing-state data shows massive Democratic early-vote lead

In a worrisome sign for Republicans, Democrats are also turning out more low-frequency and newly registered voters than the GOP.

https://politi.co/31zCG2M
7/8

PENNSYLVANIA

Total ballots cast: 1.2 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 73% Trump: 27%

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 57k. Biden: 72%. Trump: 28%

Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 88k. Biden: 64%. Trump: 36% https://politi.co/31zCG2M ">https://politi.co/31zCG2M&q...
'Warning flare': New swing-state data shows massive Democratic early-vote lead

In a worrisome sign for Republicans, Democrats are also turning out more low-frequency and newly registered voters than the GOP.

https://politi.co/31zCG2M
8/8

WISCONSIN

Total ballots cast: 844k for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 61%. Trump: 39%

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 66k. Biden: 61% Trump: 39%

Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 10k. Biden: 53%. Trump: 47% https://politi.co/31zCG2M ">https://politi.co/31zCG2M&q...
'Warning flare': New swing-state data shows massive Democratic early-vote lead

In a worrisome sign for Republicans, Democrats are also turning out more low-frequency and newly registered voters than the GOP.

https://politi.co/31zCG2M
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