Below is my prediction for what would happen if #Azerbaijan achieves a complete military victory in #Nagornokarabakh. Tl;dr: there still won’t be #NKPeace (1 of 11)
2. #Azerbaijan will announce that the #Nagornokarabakh Oblast is no more. The idea of autonomy will be gone. Azerbaijan will invite Armenians back to live as Azerbaijani citizens. None will go back. (We’re assuming that the remaining 60k civilians will safely escape to #Armenia)
3. #Armenia will have a #refugeecrisis. 150k + 400k from the 1st war means 550k refugees. The new rhetoric in Armenia will be how #AzerbaijaniAggression took the homes of these 550k people. To Azeris reading this, just think of the rhetoric you’ve heard regarding your IDPs.
4. Armenia will become even more militarized. Syunik region will be heavily fortified as that 20km border with #Iran is shown to be Armenia’s only lifeline. Depressingly, a lot of the democratic gains since the #VelvetRevolution will be lost.
5. The Armenian diaspora will become much more engaged. The Diaspora raised $140mil just for the All-Armenian Fund in 26 days. Armenians in the West will become monthly donors, raising roughly $20-40mil a month.
6. After #Armenia recovers from the shock of the loss, the resistance will begin. It will probably look something like the Irish Republican Army, except mountain-based rather than urban-based and funded by Diasporan money. Let’s call it the Armenian Resistance Army (ARA).
7. Azerbaijan will begin to repopulate #NagornoKarabakh, but they’ll find it difficult due to the mountains and lack of infrastructure. So, despite large investments, the population will remain sparse. And, they’ll find that infrastructure keeps getting blown up by the ARA.
8. Azerbaijan will condemn the acts of the ARA as Armenian terrorism. It will refuse to open the border due to these actions. Opening the border is one of the carrots that Azerbaijan often offers Armenia in return for ending the conflict.
9. There will be peacemakers in #Azerbaijan pushing back from the maximal position. Not only will they be marginalized, but they will be suppressed. #Aliyev’s power will be absolute, and he does not treat people with opposing views well.
10. Regional instability will continue for years until sometime Azerbaijan is distracted. Probably not a pandemic but some domestic instability. Perhaps during a transfer of power, a time when Azeris want to focus on domestic concerns. That’ll be when Armenia will attack.
11. And we will have yet another war. Yet another generation scarred by fighting. Yet another generation speaking about the injustice from the other side. Yet another generation driven on hate. Yet another generation without #NKPeace (end)