I’m by no means an expert, but as someone who is physically quite close to these events, here are some thoughts: https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell/status/1319389916384710656
1- indeed, should be pretty obvious that the Azeri “gains” of the last week have more to do with Armenians taking up better defensive positions along the mountain rather than defend an open plain after the Turkish drones *finally* punched a hole into the south over the weekend
Aliyev’s succession of “liberated villages” are really piles of rubble that the Azeri army may have literally walked by as they get thinned out by flanking fire from the mountain and other delaying actions, rather than having been fought over
2- a lot of the conclusions over Armenia’s diminished ability to defend itself (even if based on accurate figures) are built in the assumption of how much equipment was available to them in the first place and preclude the ability to resupply
Many armchair map watchers have come to the conclusion that if the Azeris ready the lachin corridor its all over as if wars were fought like the plots of most mangas—if you can see where the Azeris are headed, believe me, so can the Armenian general staff.
If anyone knows the importance of that crossing, you’d think it would be the ones who captured it in the first place and had 30 years to plan for this.
4- While the cost of this war to Armenia in terms of men and material should not be underplayed this is not one of those wars were the Armenians will “see the writing in the wall” to making decisions. At this moment, literally every able bodied man (and most women) are in uniform
Fresh troops have been steadily streaming into the region for weeks. The rest of the country is involved in the war effort in one way or another (not to mention the diaspora) sewing sleeping bags and purchasing winter gear and other equipment
Yes the cost has been high but when the alternative is extermination, it’s a price the Armenian people are willing to pay — Armenia is planning for the long war, let’s see if the Azeris are too #Nagornokarabakh
Currently #Azerbaijan is in the lowest ground far from any population centre, is over extended along a very long narrow front with Armenian troops on two sides, and has yet to capture any part of #NagornoKarabakh outside if #Talish .... let’s see how they survive the winter
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