1/7 Past 48 hr have been extraordinary for those living through #EastTroublesomeFire & observing from afar. My heart goes out to impacted communities, fire fighters & responders keeping people safe. From #fireecology perspective there's reason 4 hope for @RockyNPS #ColoradoFires
2/7 As of this AM, #EastTroublesomeFire fire burned just 1-mile south of a beloved research site @RockyNPS (that is/was "overdue" for fire): Chickaree Lake, where we have a 6000+ yr record of
& ecosystem history, developed from lake sediments. #paleoecology

3/7 Chickaree Lk., in @RockyNPS, is surrounded by lodgepole pine, much killed by mt pine beetle c. 2008-10. Based on tree-ring work by Jason Sibold @ThomasTVeblen et al., the area last experienced stand-replacing
in 1782, w/ some surface Fire in 1872 #dendrochronology

4/7 Based on a 4000+ yr charcoal-derived #firehistory record developed by Paul Dunnette, the area experienced
(red dots) on avg. every 125 yr. Hence, 238 yr since stand-replacing Fire, Chickaree Lake has been "overdue" or at least expected to burn. https://nph.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/nph.12828

5/7 Chickaree Lk. ecosystem has been #resilient to
for 6000+ yr., consistently recovering. This impressive resilience is typical of lodgepole pine forests in the past, even over periods of #climatechange. Some reasons for hope. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/125003

6/7 A high-resolution pollen record by @prairiebear18 shows veg. recovery around Chickaree after
over past 2500 yr. BIG question many will study is if & how recovery from #EastTroublesomeFire will differ from past, given rates of ongoing #climatechange https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0959683620941068

7/7 The #BigBurns project is studying causes and impacts of past & future
through #paleoecology & ecosystem modeling in CO & N. Rockies in MT and ID, w/ @tarahudiburg @WyClimate Kendra McLauchlan @kribartowitz @Kyra_DWolf @prairiebear18 @meredith_parish D. Pompeani #NSFFunded

And a bonus, for lakes at higher elevation in @RockyNPS, where
is slightly more rare, estimated to have burned on average once every 300 years (but ranging from as short as 30 yr). https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2745.12296
