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1/ #FL #EarlyVoting Explanation on the threshold lines and why Dems are losing:
Even though some people are trolling, a few are honestly wondering why I included IPEV in my trend line when it started 10/19. First of all, I could have continued using VBM only ---
Even though some people are trolling, a few are honestly wondering why I included IPEV in my trend line when it started 10/19. First of all, I could have continued using VBM only ---
2/ but without taking IPEV into account, it would be meaningless because it became obvious to me a lot of Rs were holding onto their VBM ballots and waiting to replace those with IPEV because of their distrust of USPS or even drop boxes. ---
3/ Some accuse me of shifting goal posts when I added IPEV to my graph. I have explained it in multiple tweets why that was better to do. I even added the Purple Line (900k) which I calculated as the number that Dems need to achieve for VBM+IPEV combined metric. ---
4/ Here's the reasoning for that purple line:
https://twitter.com/athein1/status/1316253761392660480
Of course the liberals are claiming that VBM Dem Lead continues to increase and would likely hit 653k and thus Biden would win. Well, I have a bridge to sell them. ---
https://twitter.com/athein1/status/1316253761392660480
Of course the liberals are claiming that VBM Dem Lead continues to increase and would likely hit 653k and thus Biden would win. Well, I have a bridge to sell them. ---
5/ Every reasonable person knows the great IPEV R Lead so far is taking away Dem VBM advantage.
In 2016, Dems and Rs had about equal number of VBM requests, resulting in Rs leading slightly for VBM (65k), and Ds actualling winning IPEV by 155k. ----
In 2016, Dems and Rs had about equal number of VBM requests, resulting in Rs leading slightly for VBM (65k), and Ds actualling winning IPEV by 155k. ----
6/ So, combined D lead was 90k on election eve. Dems would like to argue something like this: In 2016, VBM+IPEV D lead was 90k and Trump won by 113k. So the gap was about 200k (90k+113k). They thus argue that if that combined Dem lead on the election eve is 200k, ---
7/ it would be a tossup and if it goes above 200k, Biden wins.
Unfortunately for them, it doesn't work that way. Notice that this year, Ds have 807k (and counting) more VBM requests than Rs; no equal number like in 2016. Those people won't be voting on ED. ---
Unfortunately for them, it doesn't work that way. Notice that this year, Ds have 807k (and counting) more VBM requests than Rs; no equal number like in 2016. Those people won't be voting on ED. ---
8/ Some might be switching to IPEV but I doubt it. On top of that there has been a Dem to R Voter Registration shift of almost 200k since 2016. What does all that mean? The 650k threshold for VBM + IPEV in Dem lead to get to by ED is actually very conservative. ----
9/ The actual number is closer to 900k than 650k. It's over for them if they cannot reach 650k by election eve.
With the current IPEV data, they'll be lucky to stay above 350k. They're like the losing team crying foul on the Refs now and screaming we should look at ONLY VBM.
With the current IPEV data, they'll be lucky to stay above 350k. They're like the losing team crying foul on the Refs now and screaming we should look at ONLY VBM.
10/ Oh well, they can create their own graph of VBM only and pat each other on the back, but that won't change the outcome of this election: An Electoral College Landslide for Trump. FL won't be as close as any of the last 3 presidential elections. #MAGA /End
