So... Alberta COVID-
Record setting new cases is profoundly concerning.

Overall in Alberta so far, 5% of cases hospitalized, 1-2% go to ICU and 1% die. (The improvement in COVID outcomes from the use of dexamethasone would reduces the risk of death by up to 25%.)
/1

Right now the ICU proportion in Edmonton and Calgary is actually high, in the 4-7% range. Very sick people.

Percent positivity is 3.15%
- rate is 4.2% in Edmonton since October 8. Part may be reduction of low likelihood asymptomatic testing

BUT the numbers and % both
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Scarily:
>30 cases daily in people over the age of 60 and climbing over last days*

The daily case rate NOW is six times higher than it was in April.

The number of new outbreaks over last 10 days (of voluntary restriction) is about the same as previous 10 d (40-45/ 10 d)

/3

....Is this a Thanksgiving gathering effect? Because that would suggest measures used for meal sharing with family weren’t enough.

Possible implications for how to make upcoming gathering days
- etc- safer.

/4

Reminder that not changing things till ICUs fill up would mean:
Overloaded hospitals without capacity to do non COVID care (let alone catch up)
More sick people, more quarantined contacts, more upheaval
Note: Lab, HCW and PH are already running at the edge of surge capacity.
/4

And are tired.
Note: nowhere in the world has successfully protected over >60 during unfettered community transmission.
Seriously, show me an example.

It’s not Lockdown Vs Economy.
Try
Judicious Restrictions and Personal Good Choices versus overall COVID19 damage.
/5

FOCUS ON BASICS!
It’s gotten confusing so let’s simplify

1) if you are beginning to think you may be sick MASK, WASH HANDS, GO HOME, BE ALONE, ARRANGE TESTING.
COVID is stealthy - high risk before you know you’re sick- and you might NOT get really sick, but 67 yr old dad...
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2) WRITE down who you saw for 1-2 days before you noticed symptoms. If you test positive - call ‘em to be on the alert and reduce contacts. It’ll give contact tracers a leg up.
If you are called by a contact SAY THANKS AND WISH THEM WELL. Blaming not warranted/helpful...
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....Because you can do things right and be infected (higher risk if you don’t of course but stigmatizing will hurt the whole endeavour. )
3) Masking, handwashing and keeping to yourself in the home as possible (kids are challenging...) reduces spread to fam/roomies
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4) To reduce everyday risk:

Outside better than inside
Distance (think force field)
Mask -especially in close shared airspace with more heavy breathing (what are you thinking? I mean working out )
Take out over Dine In
Wipe high touch
Wash hands a lot
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5) BIG ISSUE-CONTACT#
Who do you NEED to see for work- social survival?
Aim for 1/3 of normal contact numbers and make it safe AND worth it.
Plan (see above) to protect people, and support businesses (ZOOM based family takeout night!!)
So not “lockdown”- but not “normal”
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SARS-CoV-2 is showing itself to be talented at exploiting weaknesses. Let down your guard and it’s there. And there’s a dangerous myth out there that we can protect the vulnerable and live normally.
Nope.
We can live pretty well, judiciously- but not normally.
Yet.

/fin.